Amgen Inc. v. F. Hoffmann-LaRoche LTD et al

Filing 54

DECLARATION re #53 Memorandum in Opposition to Motion of Michael R. Gottfried in Support of Amgen Inc.'s Opposition to Defendants' Motion to Dismiss for Lack of Subject Matter Jurisdiction and Failure to State A Claim for Which Releif May be Granted by Amgen Inc.. (Attachments: #1 Exhibit 1#2 Exhibit 2#3 Exhibit 3#4 Exhibit 4#5 Exhibit 5#6 Exhibit 6#7 Exhibit 7#8 Exhibit 8#9 Exhibit 9#10 Exhibit 10#11 Exhibit 11#12 Exhibit 12#13 Exhibit 13#14 Exhibit 14#15 Exhibit 15#16 Exhibit 16#17 Exhibit 17#18 Exhibit 18#19 Exhibit 19#20 Exhibit 20 (part 1 of 2)#21 Exhibit 20 (part 2 of 2))(Gottfried, Michael)

Amgen Inc. v. F. Hoffmann-LaRoche LTD et al

Doc. 54 Att. 17

Case 1:05-cv-12237-WGY

Document 54-18

Filed 04/25/2006

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EXHIBIT 17

Dockets.Justia.com

Case 1:05-cv-12237-WGY

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BE R STERNS
Mark Sehoenebaum, M.D. 212 272-6299 [e-mail] Craig Glassner, M.D. 212 272-6274 [e-mail] Robyn Karnauskas, Ph.D. 212 272-4180 [e-mail] Dat_.__~a
Target Price-Yr,End '05 NA 5~-Wk~ange o ~$=~52'00-$66"88 Market Cap (MM) Shares Out Q2 Jun 0.49 .62 0.69 $75B 1.32B Q3 SeE 0,52 .64 0,71

Equity Research Biotechnology / Rated: Market Overweight April 20, 2005

Amgen (AMGN-$59)- Peer Perform
Shifting The Focus From Medicare To Emerging EPO Competition -- CERA Battle Will Likely Be Intense

Avg Day Trade Vol

7.4MM

15Vo_ ...........

Proforma Estimates
2003 2004 2005 Q1Mar 0.41 0.56 0.66 Year 1.74 2.16 2.52 Q4 Dec 0.51 .58 0.74 Year 1.93 2.40 2.80

EE Post Option Expense
2003 2004 2005

Key Points *** AS 2005 PROGRESSES, WE EXPECT INVESTOR FOCUS TO SHIFT FROM MEDICARE CHANGES TO EPO COMPETITION. For the last -2 years, we believe most investor due diligence on AMGN has been focused on forecasting the impact of Medicare reimbursement changes. Throughout 2005, however, we believe this intense attention will rapidly shift to emerging competitive threats to Amgen's ~$5.5B EPO franchise. *** NOISE LEVEL AROUND ROCHE'S CERA IS ABOUT TO GET MUCH LOUDER. Roche is developing CERA, a potential branded competitor to Amgen's largest franchise, Aranesp/Epogen. We expect ph. 3 data to be presented in 4Q05 and believe a worldwide regulatory filing is likely by 1H06. Launch is possible in 2007. We expect the phase 3 data to put CERA "on the map" for the average AMGN investor. *** EXPECT AMGN & ROCHE TO ENTER A COURT "BATTLE ROYAL" IN 2007. Amgen says its patents will says this isn't the case, and has pro~sed to launch CE~ at risk2 We believe the inevitable court battle will emerge as the "mother" of all biotech patent cases in 2007 and will dominate investor att'n. We expect the inherent uncertainty in such a battle to be a persistent stock overhang. *** SMALL MOLECULE "EPOs" FARTHER OFF, BUT COULD BE BIGGEST THREAT OF ALL. While CERA will likely compete as a "me-too" injectable EPO, the launch of a small molecule EPO-mimetic could dramatically re-shape the competitive landscape by offering superior convenience, and, most importantly, a massive pricing advantage. Although only in early ph. 2, we believe the program at Fibrogen bears watching. *** MAINTAIN PEER PERFORM. Although we believe Amgen wi!l admirably weather the recent changes in Medicare reimbursement policy, we believe increasing concerns around competitive EPO threats will cap the stock in the low/mid-$60s. ***PLEASE SEE TEXT FOR A DETAILED EXPLORATION OF EMERGING EPO COMPETITION. CONFERENCE CALL AT 1 lEST TO DISCUSS THIS NOTE *** Bear Steams does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Customers of Bear Steams in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.bearsteams.com!independentresearch or can call [phone] to request a copy of this research. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE PAGE 37 OF THIS NOTE FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION.
BEAR, STEARNS & CO. INC. 383 MADISON AVENUE NEW YORK, NY 10179 [phone] WWW.BEARSTEARNS.COM

Case 1:05-cv-12237-WGY

Document 54-18

Filed 04/25/2006

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Mark Schoenebaum will host a conference call at 11:00am EST today (Wed 4/20) to summarize and discuss the content of this note. Please contact your Bear Stearns representative for dial in information.

BEAR, STEARNS & CO. INC. 383 MADISON AVENUE NEW YORK, NY 10179 [phone] WWW.BEARSTEARNS.COM

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