"The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation"

Filing 740

Administrative Motion to File Under Seal filed by Apple Inc.. (Attachments: # 1 Declaration Kiernan Declaration ISO Administrative Motion to Seal, # 2 Proposed Order Granting Motion to Seal, # 3 Exhibit Rdacted Version of Defendant's Notice of Motion and Motion for Summary Judgment and to Exclude Expert Testimony of Roger G. Noll, # 4 Exhibit SEALED Version of Motion for Summary Judgment and to Exclude Testimony, # 5 Exhibit REDACTED - Separate Statement ISO MSJ, # 6 Exhibit SEALED - Separate Statement ISO MSJ, # 7 Exhibit REDACTED - Exhibit 3 to Amiri Decl., # 8 Exhibit SEALED - Exhibit 3 to Amiri Dec, # 9 Exhibit REDACTED - Exhibit 4 to Amiri Dec, # 10 Exhibit SEALED - Exhibit 4 to Amiri Dec, # 11 Exhibit REDACTED - Exhibit 5 to Amiri Dec, # 12 Exhibit SEALED - Exhibit 5 to Amiri Dec, # 13 Exhibit REDACTED - Exhibit 6 to 8 to Amiri Dec, # 14 Exhibit SEALED - Exhibits 6 to 8 to Amiri Dec, # 15 Exhibit REDACTED - Exh 9 to Amiri Dec, # 16 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 9 to Amiri Dec, # 17 Exhibit REDACTED - Exh 10 to Amiri Dec, # 18 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 10 to Amiri Dec, # 19 Exhibit REDACTED - Exh 11 to Amiri Dec, # 20 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 11 to Amiri Dec, # 21 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 13 to Amiri Dec, # 22 Exhibit REDACTED - Exh 14 to Amiri Dec, # 23 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 14 to Amiri Dec, # 24 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 15 to Amiri Dec, # 25 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 16 to Amiri Dec, # 26 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 17 to Amiri Dec, # 27 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 18 to Amiri Dec, # 28 Exhibit SEALED - Exh 19 to Amiri Dec)(Kiernan, David) (Filed on 12/21/2013)

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Exhibit 11 [PUBLIC VERSION - REDACTED] Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT 2 NORTHERN DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA 3 OAKLAND DIVISION 4 5 THE APPLE iPOD iTUNES ANTI-TRUST LITIGATION Lead Case No. C 05-00037 6 7 ____________________________ 8 This Document Relates To: 9 ALL ACTIONS 10 ____________________________ 11 12 13 14 CONFIDENTIAL - ATTORNEYS' EYES ONLY 15 VIDEOTAPED DEPOSITION OF ROGER G. NOLL, PH.D. 16 Wednesday, December 18, 2013 17 Palo Alto, California 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Reported by: Darcy J. Brokaw RPR, CRR, CSR No. 12584 25 Job No. 10008944 www.aptusCR.com Page 1 Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 regression are correlated within a particular group 2 and you don't do anything to correct for that, what 3 would be the impact on the reported standard errors? 4 5 MS. BERNAY: Objection. Vague and ambiguous. 6 THE WITNESS: 7 the question. 8 BY MR. KIERNAN: 9 Q. I didn't completely follow Ask it again. If the residual errors in the regression 10 are correlated within a particular group and you 11 don't do anything to correct for that, what would be 12 the impact on the reported standard errors? 13 MS. BERNAY: Same objection. 14 THE WITNESS: It could be either way. It 15 could make them higher or it could make them lower, 16 depending on the nature of the correlation. 17 BY MR. KIERNAN: 18 Q. 19 20 And why would it impact the reported standard errors? A. Well, it's all built up in the -- in the 21 nature of the assumptions one makes in doing a 22 regression analysis, which is an independence of the 23 standard errors. 24 the -- if the random shock that is -- http://www.yeslaw.net/help 25 And if the standard errors -- if (Reporter inquires.) www.aptusCR.com Page 23 Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 THE WITNESS: If the random shock that is 2 in the regression equation does not satisfy the 3 independence assumption, then the effect on the 4 standard errors of the coefficients could be either 5 to elevate them or to reduce them, depending on the 6 nature of the violation of the independence 7 assumption. 8 BY MR. KIERNAN: 9 Q. Okay. And are there standard statistical 10 tests to test whether the residual errors are 11 correlated within a particular group? 12 MS. BERNAY: Objection. 13 THE WITNESS: Vague. There are many such tests 14 and many such corrections. 15 existence of even statistically significant 16 correlations is small unless those correlations are 17 high. 18 But the effect is -- the All right. So the corrections for autocorrelation of residuals are not something that actually matters in 20 the vast majority of cases because the -- it's 21 almost never the case there's no correlation in 22 residual errors, but it's almost never the case that 23 making a correction for the auto- -- the correlation 24 that does exist matters in terms of the regression. 25 http://www.yeslaw.net/help 19 It's also the case here that we're not www.aptusCR.com Page 24 Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 talking about a source of bias in the coefficients. 2 We're talking about a source of bias in the 3 estimated statistical significance, the -- 4 BY MR. KIERNAN: 5 Q. The standard errors? 6 A. Yeah, the values of the -- the expected 7 value of the regression coefficients is not 8 affected. 9 10 11 Q. The coefficients aren't affected, but the calculations of the standard errors are affected? A. Right, the calculations of the standard 12 errors are affected, but the -- but the estimated 13 effect of the independent variable is the same, the 14 expected estimated effect. 15 Q. And if the residual errors are correlated 16 within a particular group, the standard errors could 17 either be overstated or understated? 18 A. Yes. 19 Q. Without a correction? 20 A. They could be. Although, again, the -- it's not -- it's not a dichotomous issue. 22 A, they may be affected, and B, the magnitude of the 23 effect depends on the exact conditions. 24 25 Q. They -- And to know the magnitude of effect, you'd have to test it, you'd have to run one of the www.aptusCR.com Page 25 http://www.yeslaw.net/help 21 Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·that -- that's a good way to see if there's positive ·2· ·error correlation, but it's not a good way to see if ·3· ·there's negative error correlation. ·4· · · · · · ·And the second point is that the nature of ·5· ·the error correlation may be that it's dependent on ·6· ·particular combinations of variables; and that one, ·7· ·the standard tests wouldn't even tell you that it ·8· ·exists. ·9· · · · ·Q.· In this case, did you do anything to check 10· ·whether the residual errors in your regression set 11· ·forth in Exhibits 3A and 3B to Noll 10 are 12· ·correlated with any particular group? 13· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Vague and 14· ·ambiguous. 15· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· What do you mean by "group"? 16· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 17· · · · ·Q.· Within any group. 18· · · · ·A.· What do you mean, "a group"?· I don't 19· ·understand what you mean by a group. 20· · · · ·Q.· We've been using group for the last ten 21· ·minutes. 22· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Argumentative. 23· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 24· · · · ·Q.· Same group that you've -- the same group 25· ·that you've been referring to. Page 27 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· · · · ·A.· I didn't refer to a group.· I don't know ·2· ·what you're talking about.· I know I fully ·3· ·intended -·4· · · · ·Q.· You used the term "cluster" -·5· · · · · · ·(Reporter admonishes.) ·6· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·7· · · · ·Q· ·You used the word cluster, within a ·8· ·cluster. ·9· · · · ·A.· I don't agree that there are any clusters 10· ·here. 11· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection. 12· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 13· · · · ·Q.· That's not my question, Dr. Noll.· I asked 14· ·you, did you do anything to check whether the 15· ·residual errors in your regressions set forth in 16· ·Exhibit 3A and 3B are correlated within any cluster 17· ·or group? 18· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Asked and 19· ·answered. 20· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· I don't know what you mean 21· ·by a group.· And you used the word "or," and I don't 22· ·believe there are any clusters.· So how can I test 23· ·for something when I don't -- I think it either 24· ·doesn't exist or I don't understand what you're 25· ·asking? Page 28 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· · · · · · ·What is it you're asking?· Can't you just ·2· ·give me an example of what you mean by a group, and ·3· ·then we won't have to discuss it? ·4· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·5· · · · ·Q.· So you don't understand the question? ·6· · · · ·A.· I don't understand what you mean by a ·7· ·group, no.· I don't know what you have in mind. ·8· · · · ·Q.· And you don't know what I mean by cluster? ·9· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection -10· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· I know what you mean by a 11· ·cluster, and there aren't any in this particular 12· ·regression. 13· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 14· · · · ·Q.· How do you know? 15· · · · ·A.· Because I know what cluster analysis is, 16· ·and it doesn't apply to this regression because this 17· ·isn't a sample. 18· · · · ·Q.· What did you do to determine if there were 19· ·clusters?· What statistical tests did you apply? 20· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection. 21· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· I looked at the definition 22· ·of a cluster, and it doesn't apply to anything in 23· ·this regression.· I know -- I know what cluster 24· ·analysis is, and it doesn't apply to this 25· ·regression, notwithstanding what many of your Page 29 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·experts have said.· They're just not right. ·2· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·3· · · · ·Q.· Anything else other than looking at a ·4· ·definition? ·5· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Argumentative. ·6· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· I know -- the report, about ·7· ·a third of this report is about what cluster ·8· ·analysis is and what kinds of problems you apply to ·9· ·it and why this isn't a cluster sample problem.· All 10· ·right. 11· · · · · · ·So, yes, there it is.· I've cited articles 12· ·in the professional literature of which I not only 13· ·have read, but I actually know what they do.· I have 14· ·taught this stuff.· So I know what I'm talking 15· ·about.· And there's references here.· It's not that 16· ·I just read a definition and decided that something 17· ·didn't apply. 18· · · · · · ·But I know, just from knowing what cluster 19· ·analysis is, that it doesn't apply here. 20· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 21· · · · ·Q.· You just know it when you see it? 22· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Argumentative, 23· ·misstates his prior testimony. 24· · · · · · ·Come on, David. 25· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· That's complete nonsense. Page 30 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·There is -·2· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·3· · · · ·Q.· I'm just trying to understand what you did ·4· ·other than reading some books to determine if there ·5· ·are clusters in the case. ·6· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Argumentative. ·7· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· There is no such thing as a ·8· ·test for whether you ought to use cluster analysis ·9· ·in a regression that doesn't satisfy the conditions 10· ·for clustering. 11· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 12· · · · ·Q.· Okay.· That's what you teach your 13· ·students? 14· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Argumentative. 15· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· Of course it is. 16· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 17· · · · ·Q.· On page 34 of Noll 10 -- let me know when 18· ·you get there. 19· · · · ·A.· I'm there. 20· · · · ·Q.· The first paragraph, the last third, you 21· ·state that "Professors Murphy and Topel do not test 22· ·whether the mean residual errors from this procedure 23· ·are statistically significantly different from zero, 24· ·which would have to be the case if the errors within 25· ·a cluster are correlated." Page 31 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· · · · ·A.· Yes. ·2· · · · ·Q.· Did you perform that analysis? ·3· · · · ·A.· No, because I don't believe there are ·4· ·clusters.· The premise of that paragraph is if you ·5· ·assume a cluster analysis is appropriate, here's ·6· ·something you do.· And they didn't do it.· But I ·7· ·don't think you should even do that because it's not ·8· ·a cluster sample problem. ·9· · · · ·Q.· If it turns out that within a group, 10· ·within a cluster -- we can use the one defined by 11· ·Professors Murphy and Topel -- the mean residual 12· ·errors are statistically significantly different 13· ·from zero, what would that tell you? 14· · · · ·A.· Nothing. 15· · · · ·Q.· Why not? 16· · · · ·A.· Because as I said before, you only get 17· ·that far if you have a cluster sampling problem, and 18· ·we don't have a cluster sampling problem.· So 19· ·there's no point in testing for cluster, the 20· ·presence of clustering effects if you don't have a 21· ·cluster to begin with. 22· · · · · · ·This is a paragraph written on if there -23· ·if it were a sample -- if the way I had done the 24· ·analysis was to sample some transactions according 25· ·to a subset of the models of iPods that were out Page 32 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·could get still get a high squared with a very small ·2· ·subset getting big prediction errors. ·3· · · · · · ·(Reporter inquires.) ·4· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· You can have a high ·5· ·R-squared in a regression and still have a group of ·6· ·predictions that were -- where the prediction error ·7· ·is large.· And then you would -- you would still ·8· ·want to address whether that group -- you had some ·9· ·omitted variable for that group or something. 10· · · · · · ·But again, that's not really likely to 11· ·happen if you already have group identifiers.· See, 12· ·again, the -- by definition, if you have group 13· ·identifiers, the residual error within that group is 14· ·going to be zero.· The mean residual error is going 15· ·to be zero, because that's what regression analysis 16· ·does. 17· · · · · · ·So that's why, for example, the most 18· ·conventional solution to cluster problems is to use 19· ·group identifiers, indicator variables, to get the 20· ·mean of those residual errors for each group to 21· ·zero. 22· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 23· · · · ·Q.· In this case, did you perform any 24· ·statistical test to determine or to test your 25· ·independence assumption? Page 45 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Asked and ·2· ·answered. ·3· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· I have -- I have not ·4· ·performed a test of the independence assumption as ·5· ·you've put it in that way, no.· It would be ·6· ·unnecessary, because there are no groups with ·7· ·outlying residual errors in the R-squared spot.· And ·8· ·by definition, the mean residual errors by group are ·9· ·going to be zero. 10· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 11· · · · ·Q.· And if statistical tests show that mean 12· ·residual errors within groups are correlated, that 13· ·does not affect your analysis or any of your 14· ·opinions in any way? 15· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Calls for 16· ·speculation. 17· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· It might or it might not, 18· ·depending on what the reason for finding that 19· ·correlation was, that statistically significant 20· ·correlation was.· It would purely depend on the way 21· ·the test was performed and the way the groups were 22· ·created and the way the residual errors were 23· ·calculated.· All right.· That's what it would depend 24· ·on. 25· ·/// Page 46 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·understand it. ·2· · · · ·Q.· Well, yeah, okay. ·3· · · · · · ·MR. KIERNAN:· Move to strike the last ·4· ·part. ·5· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·6· · · · ·Q.· So the new iPod owners includes both ·7· ·purchasers of iPods with 7.0 and iPods without 7.0? ·8· · · · ·A.· To differing degrees, yes. ·9· · · · ·Q.· Okay.· And in the rest of the paragraph, 10· ·you state that the "lock-in would not have affected 11· ·the demand for subsequent iPods for a long period 12· ·because these purchasers would not soon make 13· ·repurchase decisions." 14· · · · · · ·What's the basis for that? 15· · · · ·A.· That it's information we have about how 16· ·long people own electronic devices.· They don't buy 17· ·a new electronic device with the same frequency they 18· ·buy music. 19· · · · ·Q.· And that's the 18-month to two-year period 20· ·that you referred to in your initial merits report? 21· · · · ·A.· I think that's those -- I don't remember 22· ·from memory, but that sounds about right as to 23· ·frequency of repurchase of iPods. 24· · · · ·Q.· Okay. 25· · · · ·A.· The mean frequency.· Some are more, some Page 49 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·are buying replacement iPods are the -- what this is ·2· ·about is the fact that it's mainly people who are ·3· ·buying replacement iPods that experience the ·4· ·immediate effect of lock-in.· They are, to some ·5· ·degree, locked in.· And the point of Harmony was to ·6· ·reduce the degree to which existing users of iPods ·7· ·were locked in. ·8· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·9· · · · ·Q.· Okay.· And I think I'm following you now, 10· ·Dr. Noll.· When you're referring to "new iPod 11· ·purchasers" in the last paragraph on page 27, you're 12· ·referring to customers who did not own an iPod 13· ·before that time? 14· · · · ·A.· Yes.· This is new purchasers.· This is not 15· ·replacement purchasers. 16· · · · ·Q.· Okay.· And for a new purchaser in late 17· ·2006, your opinion is for most of the damages 18· ·period, they would not be an important factor 19· ·affecting iPod prices because they wouldn't purchase 20· ·a replacement for the 18- to 24-month period? 21· · · · ·A.· The -- yeah.· Of course, it's not 22· ·dichotomous, it's continuous.· Their importance 23· ·grows through time.· But initially, it would not be 24· ·important because you don't replace your iPod every 25· ·month.· All right.· So it would take a while before Page 51 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·you start to see an effect. ·2· · · · · · ·There would be other things happening that ·3· ·would cause it to have some effect on demand, like ·4· ·multiple iPods within the same family unit that want ·5· ·access to the same music, things like that. ·6· · · · · · ·But the main immediate effect of lock-in ·7· ·is the existing or established base.· It's not the ·8· ·new people.· And the new people would just gradually ·9· ·through time get added to the people who are 10· ·affected by lock-in in terms of their effect on the 11· ·demand for iPods. 12· · · · · · ·MR. KIERNAN:· Let's just take a short 13· ·break. 14· · · · · · ·THE VIDEOGRAPHER:· Off the record at 15· ·10:05. 16· · · · · · ·(A brief recess was taken.) 17· · · · · · ·THE VIDEOGRAPHER:· On the record at 10:18. 18· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 19· · · · ·Q.· In the regression that is in Exhibits 3A 20· ·and 3B to Noll 10, you turn on the dummy variable 21· ·for 7.0 at different times for different models; is 22· ·that right? 23· · · · ·A.· Well, the indicator is on for a model that 24· ·has 7.0 on it.· So anything that was released after 25· ·the first date would have it, quote, turned on, Page 52 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f ·1· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·2· · · · ·Q.· So the existing Harmony sales -- the sales ·3· ·from Harmony that already have completed, they will ·4· ·continue to impact the price of models that did not ·5· ·have 7.0? ·6· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection.· Vague and ·7· ·ambiguous. ·8· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· Yes.· I mean, the -- first ·9· ·of all, Harmony isn't sales.· All right.· But 10· ·Harmony is out there on people's computers, and it 11· ·can still be used to load songs onto devices 12· ·regardless of whether RealNetworks continues to 13· ·distribute it.· It's still out there, so it would 14· ·still continue to affect people, people's behavior. 15· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: 16· · · · 25· ·/// 22· · · · ·Q.· Did you do anything to determine whether 23· ·or not 7.0 impacted the demand for iPods that did 24· ·not contain 7.0? 25· · · · · · ·MS. BERNAY:· Objection. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 would be another anticompetitive effect of 7.0 2 because the consumers who bought those things were 3 harmed. 4 because I think the supply conditions in the MP3 5 market would not make it possible for anybody to 6 sustain a significant price increase in that market 7 just because of 7.0. 8 BY MR. KIERNAN: 9 Q. But I have basically assumed that's zero Okay. And is your opinion, Dr. Noll, that 10 the impact on prices caused by 7.0 would be 11 immediate because of the lock-out effect? 12 A. Yes. 13 Q. Okay. 14 15 And why is that? Why would it be immediate? A. Because there's this group of people, 16 there's just a continuous flow of people who want to 17 replace an MP3 player that were available to Apple 18 before 7.0 was introduced and for at least some 19 models are not available to them afterwards. 20 21 22 23 25 MS. BERNAY: Objection. www.aptusCR.com http://www.yeslaw.net/help 24 Vague and Page 78 Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 ambiguous. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 So I'm not aware of any documents that explicitly analyze lock-in and lock-out. Q. Okay. So what are you relying on for the 14 basis of your opinion that the impact on price would 15 be immediate due to lock-in or lock-out as a result 16 of 7.0? 17 A. It would -- why a demand curve becomes 18 more inelastic is not really relevant to the 19 question of what is an increase in the degree of 20 inelasticity of the demand curve on price. There's 21 no -- it doesn't matter what the cause is. If the 22 demand curve becomes more inelastic, the profit 23 maximizing price goes up. (Reporter inquires.) 25 THE WITNESS: http://www.yeslaw.net/help 24 The profit maximizing price www.aptusCR.com Page 79 Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 2 goes up. And so the basis for it is the economic 3 theory of lock-in, the optimal pricing of a firm 4 that has a product with lock-in and other switching 5 costs, and then the empirical test of whether that 6 theory predicts what actually happened. 7 BY MR. KIERNAN: 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 http://www.yeslaw.net/help 24 25 www.aptusCR.com Page 80 Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 http://www.yeslaw.net/help 24 25 www.aptusCR.com Page 81 Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 http://www.yeslaw.net/help 24 25 www.aptusCR.com Page 82 Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation Roger Noll, Ph.D. 1 in general, creating incompatibilities caused prices 2 to go up. 3 that the creation of incompatibility causes prices 4 to go up, which is only true if it makes demand 5 curves more inelastic. 6 And there's evidence in all those reports So anything in any report that discusses 7 the relationship between lock-in and prices is 8 evidence in support that 7.0 did, in fact, cause the 9 demand to become more inelastic. 10 BY MR. KIERNAN: 11 Q. With respect to the impact on prices on 12 iPods as a result of the lock-out effect, would you 13 expect the impact to be the same throughout the -- 14 well, would you expect the impact on prices to 15 remain the same, to remain constant? 16 17 MS. BERNAY: Objection. Calls for speculation. 18 THE WITNESS: I would expect it to be, 19 yeah, mostly constant through time, although toward 20 the end of the period, it might become worse. 21 But on the other hand, there are other things in the model that would offset that, such as 23 the move to DRM-free files by competitors of the 24 iTunes Store. 25 /// http://www.yeslaw.net/help 22 www.aptusCR.com Page 85 Roger Noll, Ph.D. Confidential - Attorneys' Eyes Only The Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation ·1· ·guys. ·2· · · · ·Q.· Right.· Okay. ·3· · · · · · ·(Reporter inquires.) ·4· · · · · · ·THE WITNESS:· The installed base of the ·5· ·other guys. ·6· ·BY MR. KIERNAN: ·7· · · · ·Q.· The installed base for the non-iPods? ·8· · · · ·A.· The non-iPods. ·9· · · · ·Q.· All right. 10· · · · · · ·So focusing on the installed base for 11· ·iPods, would the impact of 7.0 on locking them into 12· ·iPods or increasing the lock-in of those people on 13· ·iPods, that would occur over time depending upon 14· ·their future purchases, correct? 15· · · · ·A.· Yeah.· And it's not just that.· As well, 16· ·it's also -- it doesn't really happen until they buy 17· ·their next device. 18· · · · · · ·So there's not going to be an 19· ·instantaneous effect.· It's going to be a longer 20· ·term effect.· It's the lack of competition for the 21· ·other guys that is the principal short-term effect. 22· · · · ·Q.· I've got to get one update. 23· · · · · · ·Since your last deposition, have you 24· ·purchased any iPods? 25· · · · ·A.· Probably not since my last one.· I bought Page 109 www.aptusCR.com YVer1f

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