AL-AULAQI v. OBAMA et al
Filing
24
REPLY to opposition to motion re 3 MOTION for Preliminary Injunction filed by NASSER AL-AULAQI. (Attachments: # 1 Declaration of Bernard Haykel, # 2 Declaration of Mary Ellen O'Connell, # 3 Declaration of Jonathan Manes)(Spitzer, Arthur)
AL-AULAQI v. OBAMA et al
Doc. 24 Att. 3
Dockets.Justia.com
Exhibit A
Joint Targeting Cycle and Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology (CDM)
General Counsel 10 Nov 2009
ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFFfing is Unclassified//FOUO Brie 000001
Derived From: CJCSI 3160.01, CJCSI 3122.06C
Agenda
· · ·
· ·
Background References Targeting and Collateral Damage Definitions Targeting Overview Targeting Cycle key elements Collateral Damage Estimation Summary Questions/Discussion
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References
· DOD Directive 2311.01, 9 May 2006, "DoD Law of War Program" · CJCSI 5810.01, "Implementation of the DOD Law of War Program" · CJCSI 3160.01, "No-Strike and Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology " · CJCSI 3122.06, "Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR) Process" · Joint Publication 3-60, 13 April 2007, "Joint Targeting" · DIA Instruction 3000.002, 15 July 2008, "U.S./Allied Targeting Analysis" · JTCG-ME Publication, 61 JTCG/ME-05-4, 29 September 2008", Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) Table Development" · JTCG-ME Accredited CDE Tables, 9 January 2009
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Joint Targeting Definitions and Processes
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Targeting and Fires Definitions
· Targeting: the process of selecting and prioritizing targets and matching the appropriate response to them, considering operational requirements and capabilities The purpose of targeting is to integrate and synchronize fires into joint operations Targeting supports the process of linking desired effects of fires to actions and tasks at the joint force component level
· Fires: the use of weapon systems to create a specific lethal or nonlethal effect on a target (JP 1-02)
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Target Definition
Target: An entity or object considered for possible engagement or other action
Area
Complex
Installation
Force Identified for possible action to support the commander 's objective, guidance, and intent
Equipment
Capability
Function
System
Entity
Individual
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
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Behavior ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000006
Joint Targeting Cycle (JTC)
End State and Commander's Objectives What is our goal? Are we accomplishing our goal?
Assessment
Target Development and Prioritization What targets must we effect to achieve our goal ?
Component targeting and engagements
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Best means to effect the target Capabilities Analysis Approval Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
Mission Planning and Force Execution
7 Designed to provide a means to support achievement of JFC's objectives ....ED//3-60O UNCLASSIFI JP FOU
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End State and Commander's Objectives
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization
· Guidance:
Assessment
Ground Rules/Policies Establishes Scope/Restrictions Drives subsequent phases of the targeting cycle
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis
Mission Planning and Force Execution
· Comes From: Pres/SECDEF, CoCom, JFC Law of Armed Conflict Rules of Engagement
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
What is our goal?
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Provides the critical link to Military Necessity ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000008
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Target Development and Prioritization
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization
Assessment
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis
Mission Planning and Force Execution
· Target Vetting Collective effort of the Intelligence Community Examines · Target Identification, location, function, description, significance, critical elements, target expectation, functional characterization/collateral objects of concern, intel gain/loss IC votes and provides advice on each target
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· Target Validation Compliance with commander's objectives Law Of War (LOW)/Law Of Armed What targets must we engage Conflict (LOAC) and Rules of to achieve our goal ? Engagement (ROE) · Target's relevancy within the target system ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000009
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Joint Targeting Coordination Board (JTCB)
Intel Review: "Does the intelligence support?" Target Listing: "Which CDR's objective (s) apply?"
Target Nomination: "Here's a possible target"
TDN Review
JTC Phase 3, 4, 5
Target Review: "Is this target developed?"
Effects and Legal Review: "Will target engagement further the CDR's objectives?"
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Capabilities Analysis
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization
Assessment
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis
Mission Planning and Force Execution
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
Best means to engage the target
· Evaluate available capabilities vs. desired effects to determine options Effectiveness & efficiency of forces Estimate the effects of attacks (kinetic & non-kinetic) Weighs available forces w/ COAs Inline with JFC's Objectives · Weaponeering: Weapon/system to achieve effect Efficient & effective use of resources Objectives and desired effects · Collateral Damage Estimation: Unintended or incidental damage to persons or objects not the intended target and are not lawful targets
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
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Cdr's Decision and Force Assignment
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization
· Critical step in transitioning plans to execution · Review previous steps for execution · Validate target list changes · Consolidate target development and capabilities analysis results
Capabilities Analysis
Assessment
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Mission Planning and Force Execution
· Collateral damage decisions and Strike Approvals Verify authorities--seek higher approval · Assign responsibilities for engagement
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
Approval
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Mission Planning and Force Execution
End State and Commander's Objectives Assessment Target Development and Prioritization
· Detailed planning conducted by tactical level forces - Based on commander's guidance/orders - Facilitated by open access to planners at the operational & strategic level
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
· Execution is continually monitored for - How the adversary responds/changes - Achievement of effects & Cdr's objectives - Performance of forces - Changes in the operational environment
Mission Planning and Force Execution
Capabilities Analysis
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
FIND ASSESS
DYNAMIC TARGETING
FIX
Component targeting and engagements
ENGAGE
TRACK
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ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000013 TARGET
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Combat Assessment
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization
· Measures progress toward achieving the commander's objectives MOP / MOE
Assessment
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis
Mission Planning and Force Execution
· Provides: Status Benchmark for validating actions Munitions effects assessment Collateral Damage Assessment
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
Are we accomplishing our goal?
· Generally the level at which a specified operation, task, or action is planned and executed should be the level at which such activity is assessed.
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Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE)
· Commanders must conduct a proper proportionality analysis to use the amount of force required to achieve a direct and concrete military advantage
· CDE Methodology provides the process to predict and mitigate collateral damage from conventional, non-nuclear kinetic strikes
Facilitates risk estimation and mitigation
Identifies target engagement's sensitivity and associated risks
Required on every target in accordance with Rules of Engagement
Target is weaponeered to balance accomplishing the mission with the risks to U.S. forces and the risk for collateral damage
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CDE Methodology - Technical Facts
All Munitions Technical Data is based on: The Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual (JMEM) Weapon System (JWS) Data approved by the Joint Technical Coordinating Group/Munitions Effectiveness (JTCG/ME) · Data updated every 6 months The CDE Methodology does not account for: Weapon Malfunction Operational Delivery Errors Altered tactics Unknown Transient NonCombatant Personnel and/or Property
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The 5 Basic Questions of CDE
CDE methodology is five questions to be answered before engaging a target:
1. Can I PID the object I want to affect? 2. Are there protected or collateral objects, civilian or noncombatant personnel, involuntary human shields, or significant environmental concerns within the effects range of the weapon I would like to use to attack the target? 3. Can I mitigate damage to those collateral concerns by attacking the target with a different weapon or with a different method of engagement, yet still accomplish the mission? 4. If not, how many civilians and noncombatants do I think will be injured or killed by the attack? 5. Are the collateral effects of my attack excessive in relation to the expected military advantage gained and do I need to elevate this decision to the next level of command to attack the target based on the ROE in effect?
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Risk Management
· Commanders are responsible to evaluate and balance mission requirements and threat to friendly forces while taking all reasonable steps to mitigate the potential for Collateral Damage.
· The CDE Methodology codifies and standardizes the collateral damage estimate process supporting the Commander's Evaluation of Risk in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP).
Collateral Damage
Mission/Force Protection
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CDM Process Guide
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Summary of CDE in Joint Targeting
· Never before has a nation taken such measures and resources to reduce the likelihood of civilian casualties
Our processes and procedures are rigorous
The methodology is derived from physics based computer modeling backed up by weapons testing data and direct combat observations
Estimates are applied by commanders exercising informed judgment to mitigate civilian casualties while balancing their responsibility to accomplish the mission while defending themselves and their forces
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Questions/Discussion
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Back-Up (Vignette)
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Target Value Analysis Definitions
· High Value Target: A target the enemy commander requires for the successful completion of the mission. The loss of high-value targets would be expected to seriously degrade important enemy functions.
· High Payoff Target: A high value target whose loss to the enemy will significantly contribute to the success of the friendly course of action. High-payoff targets are those high-value targets that must be acquired and successfully attacked for the success of the friendly commander's mission.
· Time Sensitive Target: A joint force commander designated target requiring immediate response because it is a highly lucrative, fleeting target of opportunity or it poses (or will soon pose) a danger to friendly forces.
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Risk Management & CDE
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· CDE 1: Target Validation / Initial Assessment
· CDE 2: General / Target Size Assessment
· CDE 3: Weaponeering Assessment
· CDE 4: Refined Assessment
4
· CDE 5: Casualty Assessment
2 1
NO NO NONE NO NO Weapon NO NO
CD Risk Management
CDE Level
NO NO Weapon/Fuse YES YES Weapon/Fuse/Delivery Heading
Structural Damage
Casualties
Tactical Restrictions
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MISSION RISK
3
Lawful Military Objectives
· Lawful Military Objectives Contribute to the enemy's warfighting/war sustaining effort and its destruction would constitute a definite military advantage Four elements that allow targets to be lawful military objectives: · Nature Each target is assessed holistically · Location on these elements · Purpose · Use
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Critical Analytical Component in CDE Methodology ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000025
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Positive Identification
"It is an inherent responsibility of all commanders, observers, air battle managers, weapons directors, attack controllers, weapons systems operators, intelligence analysts, and targeting personnel to (CJCSI 3160.01): Establish Positive Identification (PID) and to accurately locate targets consistent with current military objectives and mission specific Rules of Engagement. PID is defined as the reasonable certainty that a functionally and geospatially defined object of attack is a legitimate military target in accordance with the Law of War and applicable Rules of Engagement. Identify potential collateral concerns prior to munitions release and target engagement (provide function and geospatial delimitations if able) Apply the Collateral Damage Methodology (CDM) with due diligence to mission objectives, force protection, and collateral damage."
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Dual-Use
· Targets characterized as having both a military and civilian purpose/function are considered dual-use. · In most cases, dual-use Targets consist of facilities/structures associated with providing support to the civilian population and the military effort (eg. senior governmental level command and control, media centers, public utilities) · Commanders are responsible to determine the predominant functionality of LOW Protected Structures, based on current intelligence, and decide if the target is dual-use or not. · ROE provides the authorizations and prohibitions regarding targeting DualUse Facilities. · Regardless of the ROE in effect, civilian personnel working within the boundary of dual-use targets must be considered as noncombatant casualties for the purposes of casualty estimation
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No-Strike Policy
· Combatant Commanders identify, develop, maintain, and distribute to subordinate and supporting commands a list of No-Strike Objects for each Country within Area of Responsibility (AOR) and each OPLAN/OPORD Areas of Operation (AO)
· The National Intelligence Community will support and assist the COCOMs with No-Strike Object research, development, and production; validate additions to COCOM generated No-Strike Lists (NSL)
· A NSL is a list of all identified objects within a specified geographic area (Country or AO) functionally characterized as non-combatant / civilian in nature.
Updated and disseminated daily
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Categories of Collateral (No Strike) Objects
·
·
Category 1:
Diplomatic Facilities
Religious/Cultural/ Historical
Non-Governmental Orgs.
Medical Facilities
Public Education Facilities
Civilian Refugee Camps
Prisoner of War (POW) Camps
Facilities with Environmental Concerns
Dams and dikes
Category 2: Non-Military Billeting (Housing, Hotels/Motels) Civilian Meeting Places (Arenas, Theaters, Parks, Stadiums, Markets, Convention Centers) Public Utilities (Power, Water, Electric, Gas, Fire & Police Stations, Banks, etc.) Agricultural Storage or Processing Facilities Facilities whose functionality is unknown
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Initial Collateral Damage Estimate (CDE)
START Boundary
PID Dual-Use
No Yes
LOW/ ROE
CBR Plume Hazard
No
Yes
B
Environmental Hazard
STOP
CHA Assessment Process
CDE 1
Validates targets
Nature Location Purpose Use
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Casualty Estimation ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000030
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CDE Level 1
CDE 1 CER
Measured from Target Facility Boundary
If Collateral Concern is Out of the CHA, In the CHA, CDE = HIGH CDE = Low
CDE 1 CER*
CDE 1 Collateral Hazard Area (CHA)
Dominant Hazard = Fragmentation to Standing Personnel
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ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000031 *CER = Collateral Effects Radius UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
CDE Level 2
CER measured from individual aimpoints
C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CDE 1 CER
CDE 2 Low, PGM-Unitary
CD CDE 1 CER E 2 High
Continue to CDE 3
CDE 1 Coloaaerral ConcernsArea (CHA) lt Hazard C ll te al
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Dominant Hazard = Fragmentation to Standing Personnel ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000032
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CDE Level 3
Continue to CDE 4 CER measured from individual aimpoints CDE 3 High (Un-Mitigated) CDE 3 High (Mitigated)
CDE 3 Low (Mitigated)
CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CDE 1 CER D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
CDE 2 Low
CDE 1 CER
CDE 1 Coloaaerral ConcernsArea (CHA) lt Hazard C ll te al
Dominant Hazard = Fragmentation to Standing Personnel (Unmitigated) Ejecta to Standing Personnel (Mitigated)
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CDE Level 4
CER measured from individual aimpoints
CDE 3 Low (Mitigated)
CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CDE 1 CER D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
CDE 2 Low
CDE 4 Low
CDE 1 CER
STOP CDE 1 Coloaaerral ConcernsArea (CHA) lt Hazard C ll te al
Dominant Hazard = Blast to Structures
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CDE Level 5
· · ·
·
Casualty Estimation is not an exact science--pattern of life assists There are no precise means to predict non-combatant demographics Combatant Commanders are responsible to develop estimated non-combatant demographic factors Factors for Day and Night are based on socialized cultural norms for the applicable AOR/Country Casualty Estimates are computed based on three key factors Affected Area of collateral concerns Estimated Population Density of the effected collateral concerns Casualty Factor (Multiplier)
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CDE Level 5 (cont'd)
Target (Bridge) Restaurant CDE 3 (Mitigated) CER
CDE 3 (Un-Mitigated) CER
1.0
Garage
0.25
Inner Annulus
½ CDE 3 (Mitigated) CER
Outer Annulus
1.0
Outdoor Collateral Concern Soccer Stadium
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Population Density Tables
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Sensitive Target Approval and Review Process (STAR)
·
The CDE Methodology (CDM) supports the identification of "sensitive targets"
·
Sensitive Targets are those whose engagement present: the potential for damage and/or injury to non-combatant property and persons, potential political consequences, or other significant effects estimated to exceed predetermined, situation-specific threshold criteria.
·
Sensitive Targets are normally those assessed as CDE 5 High or those designated by the President or Secretary of Defense whose engagement present unacceptable strategic risk.
·
Sensitive (STAR) Targets require approval by either President or Secretary of Defense.
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CDE in the Joint Targeting Cycle
Plans
End State and Commander's Objectives Assessment Target Development and Prioritization
COLLATERAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis
Intelligence
Mission Planning and Force Execution
Operations
Commander's Decision and Force Assignment
Methods to prevent civilian casualties permeates the cycle
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Mitigating Weapon Effects
Effect
Delay Fuzing
Proximity Fuzing Shielding
Delivery Heading
Aimpoint Offset
Frag.
Blast
Debris
Pen. & Cratering
Thermal
CBR
Delivery Error
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Weapon Effects & Risks
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CDE Program of Instruction
(1 hr ) (3 hrs) (4 hrs) (2 hrs) (2 hrs) (2 hrs) (2 hrs) (4 hrs) (4 hrs) (8 hrs) (4 hrs) (4 hrs)
1.
CDE Methodology Program of Instruction Overview
2.
CDE Methodology - Introduction
3.
Measuring and Mitigating Weapons' Effects
4.
CDE Level 1 Target Validation / Initial Assessment
5.
CDE Level 2 General / Target Size Assessment
6.
CDE Level 3 Weaponeering Assessment
7.
CDE Level 4 Refined Assessment
8.
CDE Level 5 Casualty Estimation / Assessment
9.
CDE Automation JADOCS CDE Wizard
10. Practical Exercises
11. CDE Methodology - Review
1 2 . Examination
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Resource Allocation Find/Fix versus Engage
Better intelligence and proportional precision engagement allows us to better discriminate valid military objectives from civilian population
Engage
Engage
Find
20th Century
Find
21st Century
Fix
Fix
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USCENTCOM Strike Approval Authorities
· Rules of Engagement give the appropriate permissions to approve strikes based on Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) call and target type · Approvals, Rules of Engagement, and Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) for strikes in Afghanistan are driven by nationality of the selected strike platform: United States Rules of Engagement apply to all U.S. assets when used to strike targets Other Rules of Engagement apply to all non-US assets when used to strike targets
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Collaborative CDE Process
Communication link established with effected units
START:
(Target Identified)
ISAF/USFOR-A TARGETS Cell
REQUESTER
Collateral Damage Estimation
*CAOC *CAOC TARGETS Cell
USCENTCOM TARGETS Cell Collateral Damage Estimation Analysis Complete
Commander briefed on strike
Commander 's approval relayed to all parties
Commander Approves/Disapproves strike
STOP
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*CAOC= Combined Air and Space Operations Center
ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000045
Reach back to Intelligence Community (IC) when necessary UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Mission Planning and Force Execution
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Dynamic Targeting Cycle
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Exhibit B
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