AL-AULAQI v. OBAMA et al

Filing 25

Memorandum in opposition to re 15 MOTION to Dismiss filed by NASSER AL-AULAQI. (Attachments: # 1 Declaration of Bernard Haykel, # 2 Declaration of Mary Ellen O'Connell, # 3 Declaration of Jonathan Manes)(Spitzer, Arthur)

AL-AULAQI v. OBAMA et al

Doc. 25 Att. 3

Dockets.Justia.com

Exhibit A

Joint Targeting Cycle and Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology (CDM)

General Counsel 10 Nov 2009
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Derived From: CJCSI 3160.01, CJCSI 3122.06C

Agenda

· · ·

· ·

Background References Targeting and Collateral Damage ­ Definitions ­ Targeting Overview ­ Targeting Cycle key elements ­ Collateral Damage Estimation Summary Questions/Discussion

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References

· DOD Directive 2311.01, 9 May 2006, "DoD Law of War Program" · CJCSI 5810.01, "Implementation of the DOD Law of War Program" · CJCSI 3160.01, "No-Strike and Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology " · CJCSI 3122.06, "Sensitive Target Approval and Review (STAR) Process" · Joint Publication 3-60, 13 April 2007, "Joint Targeting" · DIA Instruction 3000.002, 15 July 2008, "U.S./Allied Targeting Analysis" · JTCG-ME Publication, 61 JTCG/ME-05-4, 29 September 2008", Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) Table Development" · JTCG-ME Accredited CDE Tables, 9 January 2009

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Joint Targeting Definitions and Processes

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Targeting and Fires Definitions

· Targeting: the process of selecting and prioritizing targets and matching the appropriate response to them, considering operational requirements and capabilities ­ The purpose of targeting is to integrate and synchronize fires into joint operations ­ Targeting supports the process of linking desired effects of fires to actions and tasks at the joint force component level

· Fires: the use of weapon systems to create a specific lethal or nonlethal effect on a target (JP 1-02)

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Target Definition

Target: An entity or object considered for possible engagement or other action

Area

Complex

Installation

Force Identified for possible action to support the commander 's objective, guidance, and intent

Equipment

Capability

Function

System

Entity

Individual
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

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Joint Targeting Cycle (JTC)
End State and Commander's Objectives What is our goal? Are we accomplishing our goal?

Assessment

Target Development and Prioritization What targets must we effect to achieve our goal ?

Component targeting and engagements

JOINT TARGETING CYCLE

Best means to effect the target Capabilities Analysis Approval Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

Mission Planning and Force Execution

7 Designed to provide a means to support achievement of JFC's objectives ....ED//3-60O UNCLASSIFI JP FOU

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End State and Commander's Objectives
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization

· Guidance:

Assessment

­ Ground Rules/Policies ­ Establishes Scope/Restrictions ­ Drives subsequent phases of the targeting cycle

JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis

Mission Planning and Force Execution

· Comes From: ­ Pres/SECDEF, CoCom, JFC ­ Law of Armed Conflict ­ Rules of Engagement

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

What is our goal?

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Target Development and Prioritization
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization

Assessment

JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis

Mission Planning and Force Execution

· Target Vetting ­ Collective effort of the Intelligence Community ­ Examines · Target Identification, location, function, description, significance, critical elements, target expectation, functional characterization/collateral objects of concern, intel gain/loss ­ IC votes and provides advice on each target

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· Target Validation ­ Compliance with commander's objectives ­ Law Of War (LOW)/Law Of Armed What targets must we engage Conflict (LOAC) and Rules of to achieve our goal ? Engagement (ROE) · Target's relevancy within the target system ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000009

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

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Joint Targeting Coordination Board (JTCB)
Intel Review: "Does the intelligence support?" Target Listing: "Which CDR's objective (s) apply?"

Target Nomination: "Here's a possible target"

TDN Review

JTC Phase 3, 4, 5

Target Review: "Is this target developed?"

Effects and Legal Review: "Will target engagement further the CDR's objectives?"

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Capabilities Analysis
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization

Assessment

JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis

Mission Planning and Force Execution

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

Best means to engage the target

· Evaluate available capabilities vs. desired effects to determine options ­ Effectiveness & efficiency of forces ­ Estimate the effects of attacks (kinetic & non-kinetic) ­ Weighs available forces w/ COAs ­ Inline with JFC's Objectives · Weaponeering: ­ Weapon/system to achieve effect ­ Efficient & effective use of resources ­ Objectives and desired effects · Collateral Damage Estimation: ­ Unintended or incidental damage to persons or objects not the intended target and are not lawful targets
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

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Cdr's Decision and Force Assignment
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization

· Critical step in transitioning plans to execution · Review previous steps for execution · Validate target list changes · Consolidate target development and capabilities analysis results
Capabilities Analysis

Assessment

JOINT TARGETING CYCLE

Mission Planning and Force Execution

· Collateral damage decisions and Strike Approvals ­ Verify authorities--seek higher approval · Assign responsibilities for engagement

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

Approval

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Mission Planning and Force Execution
End State and Commander's Objectives Assessment Target Development and Prioritization

· Detailed planning conducted by tactical level forces - Based on commander's guidance/orders - Facilitated by open access to planners at the operational & strategic level
JOINT TARGETING CYCLE

· Execution is continually monitored for - How the adversary responds/changes - Achievement of effects & Cdr's objectives - Performance of forces - Changes in the operational environment
Mission Planning and Force Execution

Capabilities Analysis

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

FIND ASSESS
DYNAMIC TARGETING

FIX

Component targeting and engagements

ENGAGE

TRACK

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Combat Assessment
End State and Commander's Objectives Target Development and Prioritization

· Measures progress toward achieving the commander's objectives ­ MOP / MOE

Assessment

JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis

Mission Planning and Force Execution

· Provides: ­ Status ­ Benchmark for validating actions ­ Munitions effects assessment ­ Collateral Damage Assessment

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

Are we accomplishing our goal?

· Generally the level at which a specified operation, task, or action is planned and executed should be the level at which such activity is assessed.

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Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE)

· Commanders must conduct a proper proportionality analysis to use the amount of force required to achieve a direct and concrete military advantage

· CDE Methodology provides the process to predict and mitigate collateral damage from conventional, non-nuclear kinetic strikes

­ Facilitates risk estimation and mitigation

­ Identifies target engagement's sensitivity and associated risks

­ Required on every target in accordance with Rules of Engagement

­ Target is weaponeered to balance accomplishing the mission with the risks to U.S. forces and the risk for collateral damage

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CDE Methodology - Technical Facts

All Munitions Technical Data is based on: ­ The Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manual (JMEM) Weapon System (JWS) ­ Data approved by the Joint Technical Coordinating Group/Munitions Effectiveness (JTCG/ME) · Data updated every 6 months ­ The CDE Methodology does not account for: ­ Weapon Malfunction ­ Operational Delivery Errors ­ Altered tactics ­ Unknown Transient NonCombatant Personnel and/or Property

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The 5 Basic Questions of CDE

CDE methodology is five questions to be answered before engaging a target:

1. Can I PID the object I want to affect? 2. Are there protected or collateral objects, civilian or noncombatant personnel, involuntary human shields, or significant environmental concerns within the effects range of the weapon I would like to use to attack the target? 3. Can I mitigate damage to those collateral concerns by attacking the target with a different weapon or with a different method of engagement, yet still accomplish the mission? 4. If not, how many civilians and noncombatants do I think will be injured or killed by the attack? 5. Are the collateral effects of my attack excessive in relation to the expected military advantage gained and do I need to elevate this decision to the next level of command to attack the target based on the ROE in effect?

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Risk Management

· Commanders are responsible to evaluate and balance mission requirements and threat to friendly forces while taking all reasonable steps to mitigate the potential for Collateral Damage.

· The CDE Methodology codifies and standardizes the collateral damage estimate process supporting the Commander's Evaluation of Risk in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP).

Collateral Damage

Mission/Force Protection

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CDM Process Guide

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Summary of CDE in Joint Targeting

· Never before has a nation taken such measures and resources to reduce the likelihood of civilian casualties

­ Our processes and procedures are rigorous

­ The methodology is derived from physics based computer modeling backed up by weapons testing data and direct combat observations

­ Estimates are applied by commanders exercising informed judgment to mitigate civilian casualties while balancing their responsibility to accomplish the mission while defending themselves and their forces

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Questions/Discussion

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Back-Up (Vignette)

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Target Value Analysis Definitions

· High Value Target: A target the enemy commander requires for the successful completion of the mission. The loss of high-value targets would be expected to seriously degrade important enemy functions.

· High Payoff Target: A high value target whose loss to the enemy will significantly contribute to the success of the friendly course of action. High-payoff targets are those high-value targets that must be acquired and successfully attacked for the success of the friendly commander's mission.

· Time Sensitive Target: A joint force commander designated target requiring immediate response because it is a highly lucrative, fleeting target of opportunity or it poses (or will soon pose) a danger to friendly forces.

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Risk Management & CDE
5

· CDE 1: Target Validation / Initial Assessment

· CDE 2: General / Target Size Assessment

· CDE 3: Weaponeering Assessment

· CDE 4: Refined Assessment

4

· CDE 5: Casualty Assessment

2 1
NO NO NONE NO NO Weapon NO NO

CD Risk Management

CDE Level
NO NO Weapon/Fuse YES YES Weapon/Fuse/Delivery Heading

Structural Damage

Casualties

Tactical Restrictions

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MISSION RISK
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Lawful Military Objectives

· Lawful Military Objectives ­ Contribute to the enemy's warfighting/war sustaining effort and its destruction would constitute a definite military advantage ­ Four elements that allow targets to be lawful military objectives: · Nature Each target is assessed holistically · Location on these elements · Purpose · Use

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Positive Identification

"It is an inherent responsibility of all commanders, observers, air battle managers, weapons directors, attack controllers, weapons systems operators, intelligence analysts, and targeting personnel to (CJCSI 3160.01): ­ Establish Positive Identification (PID) and to accurately locate targets consistent with current military objectives and mission specific Rules of Engagement. ­ PID is defined as the reasonable certainty that a functionally and geospatially defined object of attack is a legitimate military target in accordance with the Law of War and applicable Rules of Engagement. ­ Identify potential collateral concerns prior to munitions release and target engagement (provide function and geospatial delimitations if able) ­ Apply the Collateral Damage Methodology (CDM) with due diligence to mission objectives, force protection, and collateral damage."

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Dual-Use

· Targets characterized as having both a military and civilian purpose/function are considered dual-use. · In most cases, dual-use Targets consist of facilities/structures associated with providing support to the civilian population and the military effort (eg. senior governmental level command and control, media centers, public utilities) · Commanders are responsible to determine the predominant functionality of LOW Protected Structures, based on current intelligence, and decide if the target is dual-use or not. · ROE provides the authorizations and prohibitions regarding targeting DualUse Facilities. · Regardless of the ROE in effect, civilian personnel working within the boundary of dual-use targets must be considered as noncombatant casualties for the purposes of casualty estimation

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No-Strike Policy

· Combatant Commanders identify, develop, maintain, and distribute to subordinate and supporting commands a list of No-Strike Objects for each Country within Area of Responsibility (AOR) and each OPLAN/OPORD Areas of Operation (AO)

· The National Intelligence Community will support and assist the COCOMs with No-Strike Object research, development, and production; validate additions to COCOM generated No-Strike Lists (NSL)

· A NSL is a list of all identified objects within a specified geographic area (Country or AO) functionally characterized as non-combatant / civilian in nature.

Updated and disseminated daily

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Categories of Collateral (No Strike) Objects
·

·

Category 1:

­ Diplomatic Facilities

­ Religious/Cultural/ Historical

­ Non-Governmental Orgs.

­ Medical Facilities

­ Public Education Facilities

­ Civilian Refugee Camps

­ Prisoner of War (POW) Camps

­ Facilities with Environmental Concerns

­ Dams and dikes

Category 2: ­ Non-Military Billeting (Housing, Hotels/Motels) ­ Civilian Meeting Places (Arenas, Theaters, Parks, Stadiums, Markets, Convention Centers) ­ Public Utilities (Power, Water, Electric, Gas, Fire & Police Stations, Banks, etc.) ­ Agricultural Storage or Processing Facilities ­ Facilities whose functionality is unknown

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Initial Collateral Damage Estimate (CDE)

START Boundary

PID Dual-Use
No Yes

LOW/ ROE
CBR Plume Hazard

No

Yes

B

Environmental Hazard

STOP

CHA Assessment Process
CDE 1

Validates targets

Nature Location Purpose Use

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Casualty Estimation ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000030

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CDE Level 1
CDE 1 CER
Measured from Target Facility Boundary

If Collateral Concern is Out of the CHA, In the CHA, CDE = HIGH CDE = Low

CDE 1 CER*

CDE 1 Collateral Hazard Area (CHA)

Dominant Hazard = Fragmentation to Standing Personnel

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ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000031 *CER = Collateral Effects Radius UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

CDE Level 2
CER measured from individual aimpoints

C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CDE 1 CER

CDE 2 Low, PGM-Unitary

CD CDE 1 CER E 2 High

Continue to CDE 3

CDE 1 Coloaaerral ConcernsArea (CHA) lt Hazard C ll te al

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Dominant Hazard = Fragmentation to Standing Personnel ACLU DRONES JOINT STAFF 000032

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CDE Level 3
Continue to CDE 4 CER measured from individual aimpoints CDE 3 High (Un-Mitigated) CDE 3 High (Mitigated)

CDE 3 Low (Mitigated)

CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CDE 1 CER D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

CDE 2 Low

CDE 1 CER

CDE 1 Coloaaerral ConcernsArea (CHA) lt Hazard C ll te al

Dominant Hazard = Fragmentation to Standing Personnel (Unmitigated) Ejecta to Standing Personnel (Mitigated)

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CDE Level 4
CER measured from individual aimpoints

CDE 3 Low (Mitigated)

CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CD CDE 1 CER D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

CDE 2 Low

CDE 4 Low

CDE 1 CER

STOP CDE 1 Coloaaerral ConcernsArea (CHA) lt Hazard C ll te al
Dominant Hazard = Blast to Structures

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CDE Level 5

· · ·

·

Casualty Estimation is not an exact science--pattern of life assists There are no precise means to predict non-combatant demographics Combatant Commanders are responsible to develop estimated non-combatant demographic factors ­ Factors for Day and Night are based on socialized cultural norms for the applicable AOR/Country Casualty Estimates are computed based on three key factors ­ Affected Area of collateral concerns ­ Estimated Population Density of the effected collateral concerns ­ Casualty Factor (Multiplier)

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CDE Level 5 (cont'd)
Target (Bridge) Restaurant CDE 3 (Mitigated) CER

CDE 3 (Un-Mitigated) CER

1.0

Garage

0.25
Inner Annulus

½ CDE 3 (Mitigated) CER

Outer Annulus

1.0
Outdoor Collateral Concern Soccer Stadium

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Population Density Tables

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Sensitive Target Approval and Review Process (STAR)

·

The CDE Methodology (CDM) supports the identification of "sensitive targets"

·

Sensitive Targets are those whose engagement present: ­ the potential for damage and/or injury to non-combatant property and persons, ­ potential political consequences, ­ or other significant effects estimated to exceed predetermined, situation-specific threshold criteria.

·

Sensitive Targets are normally those assessed as CDE 5 High or those designated by the President or Secretary of Defense whose engagement present unacceptable strategic risk.

·

Sensitive (STAR) Targets require approval by either President or Secretary of Defense.

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CDE in the Joint Targeting Cycle
Plans

End State and Commander's Objectives Assessment Target Development and Prioritization

COLLATERAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT JOINT TARGETING CYCLE
Capabilities Analysis

Intelligence
Mission Planning and Force Execution

Operations

Commander's Decision and Force Assignment

Methods to prevent civilian casualties permeates the cycle
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Mitigating Weapon Effects

Effect

Delay Fuzing

Proximity Fuzing Shielding

Delivery Heading

Aimpoint Offset

Frag.

Blast

Debris

Pen. & Cratering

Thermal

CBR

Delivery Error

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Weapon Effects & Risks

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CDE Program of Instruction
(1 hr ) (3 hrs) (4 hrs) (2 hrs) (2 hrs) (2 hrs) (2 hrs) (4 hrs) (4 hrs) (8 hrs) (4 hrs) (4 hrs)

1.

CDE Methodology Program of Instruction ­ Overview

2.

CDE Methodology - Introduction

3.

Measuring and Mitigating Weapons' Effects

4.

CDE Level 1 ­ Target Validation / Initial Assessment

5.

CDE Level 2 ­ General / Target Size Assessment

6.

CDE Level 3 ­ Weaponeering Assessment

7.

CDE Level 4 ­ Refined Assessment

8.

CDE Level 5 ­ Casualty Estimation / Assessment

9.

CDE Automation ­ JADOCS CDE Wizard

10. Practical Exercises

11. CDE Methodology - Review

1 2 . Examination

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Resource Allocation ­ Find/Fix versus Engage
Better intelligence and proportional precision engagement allows us to better discriminate valid military objectives from civilian population

Engage

Engage

Find
20th Century

Find
21st Century

Fix

Fix

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USCENTCOM Strike Approval Authorities

· Rules of Engagement give the appropriate permissions to approve strikes based on Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) call and target type · Approvals, Rules of Engagement, and Collateral Damage Estimation (CDE) for strikes in Afghanistan are driven by nationality of the selected strike platform: ­ United States Rules of Engagement apply to all U.S. assets when used to strike targets ­ Other Rules of Engagement apply to all non-US assets when used to strike targets

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Collaborative CDE Process
Communication link established with effected units

START:

(Target Identified)

ISAF/USFOR-A TARGETS Cell

REQUESTER

Collateral Damage Estimation
*CAOC *CAOC TARGETS Cell

USCENTCOM TARGETS Cell Collateral Damage Estimation Analysis Complete

Commander briefed on strike

Commander 's approval relayed to all parties

Commander Approves/Disapproves strike

STOP

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*CAOC= Combined Air and Space Operations Center

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Reach back to Intelligence Community (IC) when necessary UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Mission Planning and Force Execution

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Dynamic Targeting Cycle

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Exhibit B