Amgen Inc. v. F. Hoffmann-LaRoche LTD et al

Filing 325

DECLARATION re #322 Objection in Support of Defnendants' Opposition to Amgen's Claims Construction Brief by F. Hoffmann-LaRoche LTD, Roche Diagnostics GmbH, Hoffmann LaRoche Inc.. (Attachments: #1 Exhibit T#2 Exhibit U Part 1#3 Exhibit U Part 2#4 Exhibit U Part 3#5 Exhibit U Part 4#6 Exhibit V#7 Exhibit W#8 Exhibit X#9 Exhibit Y#10 Exhibit Z#11 Exhibit AA Part 1#12 Exhibit AA Part 2#13 Exhibit BB#14 Errata CC#15 Exhibit DD#16 Exhibit EE#17 Exhibit FF#18 Exhibit GG#19 Exhibit HH#20 Exhibit II Part 1#21 Exhibit II Part 2#22 Exhibit JJ#23 Exhibit KK#24 Exhibit LL#25 Exhibit MM#26 Exhibit NN#27 Exhibit OO#28 Exhibit PP Part 1#29 Exhibit PP Part 2#30 Exhibit QQ)(Fleming, Thomas)

Amgen Inc. v. F. Hoffmann-LaRoche LTD et al

Doc. 325 Att. 24

Case 1:05-cv-12237-WGY

Document 325-25

Filed 03/19/2007

Page 1 of 2

MORGAN STANLEY EQUITY RESEARCH AMGEN: SOME SETBACKS FOR COMPETITORS IN EU February 23, 2006 Steven Harr, M.D.[phone] [e-mail] Sapna Srivastava, Ph.D.(212) [e-mail] Michael Aberman, M.D.(212) [e-mail] Ashutosh Tyagi, M.D.(212) [e-mail] Kevin Pyun [phone] [e-mail]

Quick Comment: While EU competition in the erythropoietin market is inevitable over the next several years, potential competitors have had two setbacks in the past 24 hours. Pliva, an Eastern European company, and Mayne, its Australian partner, announced that they are no longer pursuing a biogeneric strategy for this market, and Shire announced that its expected launch of Dynepo has been delayed from 2H06 to 1H07. Given the size of this market and the profits to Amgen, all delays in competition in the US and EU are positive for the value of the company. What's New: Mayne stated that it believes running the clinical trials and building the manufacturing capacity for a biogeneric erythropoietin (issues for all potential entrants in this market) would be prohibitively expensive (Pliva could still partner somewhere else), and it is no longer pursuing this market. Shire stated on its 4Q conference call this morning that it is delaying its Dynepo EU launch until 2007 as it pursues additional stability tests. Implications: Potential competitors have faced several setbacks in the past several weeks (beyond these, Roche is delaying its oncology launch and J&J is cutting its US Procrit sales force). As we have written previously, we view Amgen's position in the erythropoietin market as the second best monopoly of our generation (behind Microsoft's Windows), and any delay to competitors is accretive to the value of this company. The next major set of information in this market is likely Phase III data from Stada in late March. Stock Rating: Equal-weight Industry View: In-Line ModelWare EPS actual: (Dec 2004) USD 2.37; (Dec 2005) USD 3.20 ModelWare EPS estimate: (Dec 2006) USD 3.50; (Dec 2007) USD 4.02 Consensus EPS actual: (Dec 2004) USD 2.41; (Dec 2005) USD 3.20 Consensus EPS estimate: (Dec 2006) USD 3.47; (Dec 2007) USD 3.99 Share Price: USD 75.08 (Feb 22, 2006) Target Price: USD 73.00 Market Cap (mm): USD 92,578 END OF RESEARCH ABSTRACT
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Case 1:05-cv-12237-WGY

Document 325-25

Filed 03/19/2007

Page 2 of 2

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