Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College et al

Filing 421

DECLARATION re 412 MOTION for Summary Judgment by Students for Fair Admissions, Inc.. (Attachments: # 1 Exhibit 1, # 2 Exhibit 2, # 3 Exhibit 3, # 4 Exhibit 4, # 5 Exhibit 5, # 6 Exhibit 6, # 7 Exhibit 7, # 8 Exhibit 8, # 9 Exhibit 9, # 10 Exhibit 10, # 11 Exhibit 11, # 12 Exhibit 12, # 13 Exhibit 13, # 14 Exhibit 14, # 15 Exhibit 15, # 16 Exhibit 16, # 17 Exhibit 17, # 18 Exhibit 18, # 19 Exhibit 19, # 20 Exhibit 20, # 21 Exhibit 21, # 22 Exhibit 22, # 23 Exhibit 23, # 24 Exhibit 24, # 25 Exhibit 25, # 26 Exhibit 26, # 27 Exhibit 27, # 28 Exhibit 28, # 29 Exhibit 29, # 30 Exhibit 30, # 31 Exhibit 31, # 32 Exhibit 32, # 33 Exhibit 33, # 34 Exhibit 34, # 35 Exhibit 35, # 36 Exhibit 36, # 37 Exhibit 37, # 38 Exhibit 38, # 39 Exhibit 39, # 40 Exhibit 40, # 41 Exhibit 41, # 42 Exhibit 42, # 43 Exhibit 43, # 44 Exhibit 44, # 45 Exhibit 45, # 46 Exhibit 46, # 47 Exhibit 47, # 48 Exhibit 48, # 49 Exhibit 49, # 50 Exhibit 50, # 51 Exhibit 51, # 52 Exhibit 52, # 53 Exhibit 53, # 54 Exhibit 54, # 55 Exhibit 55, # 56 Exhibit 56, # 57 Exhibit 57, # 58 Exhibit 58, # 59 Exhibit 59, # 60 Exhibit 60, # 61 Exhibit 61, # 62 Exhibit 62, # 63 Exhibit 63, # 64 Exhibit 64, # 65 Exhibit 65, # 66 Exhibit 66, # 67 Exhibit 67, # 68 Exhibit 68, # 69 Exhibit 69, # 70 Exhibit 70, # 71 Exhibit 71, # 72 Exhibit 72, # 73 Exhibit 73, # 74 Exhibit 74, # 75 Exhibit 75, # 76 Exhibit 76, # 77 Exhibit 77, # 78 Exhibit 78, # 79 Exhibit 79, # 80 Exhibit 80, # 81 Exhibit 81, # 82 Exhibit 82, # 83 Exhibit 83, # 84 Exhibit 84, # 85 Exhibit 85, # 86 Exhibit 86, # 87 Exhibit 87, # 88 Exhibit 88, # 89 Exhibit 89, # 90 Exhibit 90, # 91 Exhibit 91, # 92 Exhibit 92, # 93 Exhibit 93, # 94 Exhibit 94, # 95 Exhibit 95, # 96 Exhibit 96, # 97 Exhibit 97, # 98 Exhibit 98, # 99 Exhibit 99, # 100 Exhibit 100, # 101 Exhibit 101, # 102 Exhibit 102, # 103 Exhibit 103, # 104 Exhibit 104, # 105 Exhibit 105, # 106 Exhibit 106, # 107 Exhibit 107, # 108 Exhibit 108, # 109 Exhibit 109, # 110 Exhibit 110, # 111 Exhibit 111, # 112 Exhibit 112, # 113 Exhibit 113, # 114 Exhibit 114, # 115 Exhibit 115, # 116 Exhibit 116, # 117 Exhibit 117, # 118 Exhibit 118, # 119 Exhibit 119, # 120 Exhibit 120, # 121 Exhibit 121, # 122 Exhibit 122, # 123 Exhibit 123, # 124 Exhibit 124, # 125 Exhibit 125, # 126 Exhibit 126, # 127 Exhibit 127, # 128 Exhibit 128, # 129 Exhibit 129, # 130 Exhibit 130, # 131 Exhibit 131, # 132 Exhibit 132, # 133 Exhibit 133, # 134 Exhibit 134, # 135 Exhibit 135, # 136 Exhibit 136, # 137 Exhibit 137, # 138 Exhibit 138, # 139 Exhibit 139, # 140 Exhibit 140, # 141 Exhibit 141, # 142 Exhibit 142, # 143 Exhibit 143, # 144 Exhibit 144, # 145 Exhibit 145, # 146 Exhibit 146, # 147 Exhibit 147, # 148 Exhibit 148, # 149 Exhibit 149, # 150 Exhibit 150, # 151 Exhibit 151, # 152 Exhibit 152, # 153 Exhibit 153, # 154 Exhibit 154, # 155 Exhibit 155, # 156 Exhibit 156, # 157 Exhibit 157, # 158 Exhibit 158, # 159 Exhibit 159, # 160 Exhibit 160, # 161 Exhibit 161, # 162 Exhibit 162, # 163 Exhibit 163, # 164 Exhibit 164, # 165 Exhibit 165, # 166 Exhibit 166, # 167 Exhibit 167, # 168 Exhibit 168, # 169 Exhibit 169, # 170 Exhibit 170, # 171 Exhibit 171, # 172 Exhibit 172, # 173 Exhibit 173, # 174 Exhibit 174, # 175 Exhibit 175, # 176 Exhibit 176, # 177 Exhibit 177, # 178 Exhibit 178, # 179 Exhibit 179, # 180 Exhibit 180, # 181 Exhibit 181, # 182 Exhibit 182, # 183 Exhibit 183, # 184 Exhibit 184, # 185 Exhibit 185, # 186 Exhibit 186, # 187 Exhibit 187, # 188 Exhibit 188, # 189 Exhibit 189, # 190 Exhibit 190, # 191 Exhibit 191, # 192 Exhibit 192, # 193 Exhibit 193, # 194 Exhibit 194, # 195 Exhibit 195, # 196 Exhibit 196, # 197 Exhibit 197, # 198 Exhibit 198, # 199 Exhibit 199, # 200 Exhibit 200, # 201 Exhibit 201, # 202 Exhibit 202, # 203 Exhibit 203, # 204 Exhibit 204, # 205 Exhibit 205, # 206 Exhibit 206, # 207 Exhibit 207, # 208 Exhibit 208, # 209 Exhibit 209, # 210 Exhibit 210, # 211 Exhibit 211, # 212 Exhibit 212, # 213 Exhibit 213, # 214 Exhibit 214, # 215 Exhibit 215, # 216 Exhibit 216, # 217 Exhibit 217, # 218 Exhibit 218, # 219 Exhibit 219, # 220 Exhibit 220, # 221 Exhibit 221, # 222 Exhibit 222, # 223 Exhibit 223, # 224 Exhibit 224, # 225 Exhibit 225, # 226 Exhibit 226, # 227 Exhibit 227, # 228 Exhibit 228, # 229 Exhibit 229, # 230 Exhibit 230, # 231 Exhibit 231, # 232 Exhibit 232, # 233 Exhibit 233, # 234 Exhibit 234, # 235 Exhibit 235, # 236 Exhibit 236, # 237 Exhibit 237, # 238 Exhibit 238, # 239 Exhibit 239, # 240 Exhibit 240, # 241 Exhibit 241, # 242 Exhibit 242, # 243 Exhibit 243, # 244 Exhibit 244, # 245 Exhibit 245, # 246 Exhibit 246, # 247 Exhibit 247, # 248 Exhibit 248, # 249 Exhibit 249, # 250 Exhibit 250, # 251 Exhibit 251, # 252 Exhibit 252, # 253 Exhibit 253, # 254 Exhibit 254, # 255 Exhibit 255, # 256 Exhibit 256, # 257 Exhibit 257, # 258 Exhibit 258, # 259 Exhibit 259, # 260 Exhibit 260, # 261 Exhibit 261)(Consovoy, William) (Additional attachment(s) added on 6/18/2018: # 262 Unredacted version of Declaration, # 263 Exhibit 1 (filed under seal), # 264 Exhibit 2 (filed under seal), # 265 Exhibit 5 (filed under seal), # 266 Exhibit 6 (filed under seal), # 267 Exhibit 7 (filed under seal), # 268 Exhibit 8 (filed under seal), # 269 Exhibit 9 (filed under seal), # 270 Exhibit 10 (filed under seal)) (Montes, Mariliz). (Additional attachment(s) added on 6/18/2018: # 271 Exhibit 11 (filed under seal), # 272 Exhibit 12(filed under seal), # 273 Exhibit 13 (filed under seal), # 274 Exhibit 14 (filed under seal), # 275 Exhibit 16 (filed under seal), # 276 Exhibit 17(filed under seal), # 277 Exhibit 18(filed under seal), # 278 Exhibit 19 (filed under seal), # 279 Exhibit 20 (filed under seal), # 280 Exhibit 22 (filed under seal), # 281 Exhibit 23 (filed under seal), # 282 Exhibit 24 (filed under seal), # 283 Exhibit 25(filed under seal), # 284 Exhibit 26 (filed under seal), # 285 Exhibit 28 (filed under seal), # 286 Exhibit 29 (filed under seal), # 287 Exhibit 31 (filed under seal), # 288 Exhibit 32 (filed under seal), # 289 Exhibit 33 (filed under seal), # 290 Exhibit 35 (filed under seal), # 291 Exhibit 36 (filed under seal), # 292 Exhibit 37 (filed under seal), # 293 Exhibit 38(filed under seal), # 294 Exhibit 39 (filed under seal), # 295 Exhibit 40 (filed under seal), # 296 Exhibit 41, # 297 Exhibit 42 (filed under seal), # 298 Exhibit 43 (filed under seal), # 299 Exhibit 44(filed under seal), # 300 Exhibit 45 (filed under seal), # 301 Exhibit 46 (filed under seal), # 302 Exhibit 47 (filed under seal), # 303 Exhibit 48 (filed under seal), # 304 Exhibit 51 (filed under seal)) (Montes, Mariliz).

EXHIBIT 134

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Admissions and Financial Aid at Harvard College

For Discussion
February 2013

Office of Institutional Research
Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only

HARV00031687

7

Introduction

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

• Nationally, there has long been interest in issues surrounding college access and affordability. In
the last decade, the conversation has expanded to focus on college outcomes and achievement.
Harvard College has a long tradition of promoting these goals.
• In order to signal its commitment to these goals, Harvard has made a series of public changes that
a mplify the scrutiny and attention already paid to its admissions and financial aid practices. These
i nclude:
• The recent reintroduction of early action admissions
• Financial aid initiatives aimed at improving the affordability for most US families
• Externally, many continue to raise questions about Harvard's commitment to access and
achievement.
• Internally, we are concerned about the effects of public and non-public changes on our ability to
recruit students to Harvard, their experience at Harvard, and whether our investments are
financially sustainable.

HARV00031688
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

Recent admissions and financial aid questions raised

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Part I: Access
1. What is the effect on our applicant pool and yield of reintroducing early
action?
2 Is the shift in the gender balance at Harvard College due to increased interest
.
and recruitment for SEAS?
3 Does the admissions process disadvantage Asians?
.

Part II: Affordability
4 What is the effect of our financial aid policies on our applicant pools and
.
yields?
S. How affordable is Harvard to the "typical" family?
6. How much growth in the aid budget can the FAS sustain?

Part Ill: Achievement
7. How can we measure achievement among Harvard College graduates?
HARV00031689
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

3

Today's Goals

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

• Review OIR work related to Part I: Access
• Discuss next steps
• Clarify priorities and timing
• Discuss additional data needed

HARV00031690
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

4

Contents

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Part I: Access
A first look at the return of early action
Shift in the gender balance and impact of concentration choice
Evaluating factors that play a role in Harvard College admission
Appendix: Data Tables

HARV00031691
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

5

Contents

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Part I: Access
A first look at the return of early action
Shift in the gender balance and impact of concentration choice
Evaluating factors that play a role in Harvard College admission
Appendix: Data Tables

HARV00031692
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

6

Guiding questions

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

How do early action pools at Harvard compare to the regular action pools for the class
of 2016 and the classes of 2007-2011?
How do the two early action pools compare to each other?
What is the relationship between early action and yield rates?
How much can we learn from only one admissions cycle with early action back in
place?

HARV00031693
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

7

Review of findings from Fall 2010 early action analysis

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

• Yield rates for the most highly rated Hispanic, Black and White students declined after the end of early action.
• Yield rates for all Hispanic and White students declined after the end of early action.

Yield Rates by Race Ethnicity, Fall 2003 to Fall 2010
Students with High Academic and
Extracurricular Ratings

All Students

90.0%

90.0%

85.0% -

85.0%

Number of Admits

_____------- 4
-

t
c---A

A-----80.0% -

80.0%

All
Admits

- Asian
A-

2
,033

3,131

-A- As i a n

4-White

75.0% -

High
Ratings

3
,462

7,432

-+- White

- His pa nic
X-

411

1,581

-X- His pa nic

s- BI a ck

253

1,769

-s- BI a ck

-......._____*

73.7%

70.0% 65.0%

79.1%
•
-...

65.0% -

75.0%
71.3%

76.1%

70.0%

65.0%
Ethnicities with statistically significant
changes marked in crimson

60.0% -

55.0% -

64.1%
60.0%

55.0%
51.3%

50.0%

5
0.0%
2
003-2007

URM Yield
Rate

2008-2010

2
003-2007

2008-2010

64.5%

54.5%

69.6%

65.2%

Source: Office
HM1
Agiaril§daleciMiiWid
"
High" rating indicates a rating of 1 or 2.

HARV00031694

The new early applicant pools are smaller than prior early applicant pools in relative terms
Early Applicants as a Proportion of the Applicant Pool, by Class
4
0% -

35%

3
0%

25%

2
0%

15% —

10%
5%

0
%
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Total Applicants

20,987

19,752

22,796

22,754

22,955

27,462

29,114

30,489

34,950

34,303

35,022

Early Applicants

7,614

3,889

4,214

3,869

4,008

4,228

4
,856

Students
permitted to
apply to multiple
EA schools and
one ED school

Return to
single-choice EA
program

EA program
ends

Return of EA
program

Source: Office of Admissions
Application from previous admits counted in total applicants.
HAR V00031695
The class of 2( 17
;
1
nrnyi8Atiefax XediVeVac,Wlismed students to participate in multiple early action programs in addition to one eariy
decision program.

Compared to regular applicant pool, new and old early action pools look similar

•
2016

Female

2007-2011

.6*

Parent(s) No College

African American

Parent(s) Harvard Grad

*

101

Asian

Parent(s)College Degree

Caucasian

Fee Waiver

Hispanic

*

Academic 1

International

Academic 2

E :
r
i

Native American

Academic 3

Other Ethnicity

Academic 4

Unknown Ethnicity

Academic 5
4

-10%

-5%

More in early
applicant pool

0%

5%

10%

More in regular
applicant pool

-20% -15% -10% -5%

More in early
applicant pool

0
%

5%

10%

More in regular
applicant pool

HAR V00031696

*Significant differexice_o<0 001
migniy rmaenual - mitorney's Eyes Only
The bars in these graphs represent differences for these years of early action as compared to the regular action pool. See Appendix.

The 2016 early action pool is more diverse than old early action pools

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Demographic Differences Between Early Applicant Pools
African American*
International*
Fee Waiver*
Hispanic*
Academic 5*
Academic 4*
Academic 2
Native American
Academic 1
Unknown Race/Ethnicity
Other Race/Ethncity
Female
Asian*
Caucasian*
Academic 3*
-6%

-4%

-2%
Old Early
Action Pool

0%

2%
2016 Early
Action Pool

*Significant difference p<0.001
Figures in theFfklaMa
i
vgaPrAtAfgAtifece6wifs between the two early action pools. See Appendix.
Early action was not in place for the classes of 2012-2015.

4%

6%

HAR V00031697

7.1

Yield rates are higher in early action years

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Yield Rates by Applicant Type
100% 95%
90%
85%
80%
S
75%

Early
Overall

—0—Regular
70%
65%
6
0%
55%
50%
007
2

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Early admissions was not in effect for the classes of 2012-2015.
Previous admlitat1;11)Igivofirlepresetitftretffra*Mttportion of the overall applicant pool, are excluded.

2016

HARV00031698

12

High admissions ratings sub-groups in 2016 appear to have higher yield rates than before

Change in Yield Rates Between Classes of2016 and 2012-2015
African American and High Ratings*
Hispanic and High Ratings
African American*
W hite and High Ratings*
Male and High Ratings*
High Academic and Extracurricular Ratings*
White*
Asian*
Male*
At least one parent attended college*
Female and High Ratings*
Average*
Female*
Legacy
Hispanic
First Generation
Asian and High Ratings
Fee Waiver
International and High Ratings

•

Average Increase in
Yield Rate: 4.14%

International
Regular applicant*
-10%

-5%

0%

5%

High ratings defined as having 1 or 2 for both academic and extracurricular admissions ratings
2016 yield ratQhfP6MAXAMMAROcRigi7 933
%
*Significant difference p<0.05

10%

15%

20%

HAR V00031699

Profile of Class of 2016: Small Demographic Shifts

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Race/Ethnicity of Matriculants, by Class

Fee Waiver Status of Matriculants, by Class

100%

25% -

90%
8
0%
•
International

2
0%

7
0%
H White
6
0%

15%
Asian

50%
Unknown/Other

4
0%

Fee Waiver

10% —
Hispanic

3
0%
2
0%

•
African American

10%

•
Native American

5
%

0
%
N
0
0

00
0
0

al
0
0

0
c-1
0

t
-I
0

en
T-1
0

0
%
0

N
0

0

o
N

URM Status of Matriculants, by Class

00
0
0
CV

0

Cn
0
0
CV

c-1
c-1
0
eV

0
CV

N
0
CV

rn
c-1
0
CV

0
CV

in
c-1
0
N

0

Parent Education of Matriculants, by Class

25%

25% —

2
0%

2
0%

15%

15%

Legacy
— URM

10% —

10%

First Generation

5%
5%
0
%
0
%
00
rsi

()
&
rlighl

re)

▪
0

onfidential attorney's Eyes Onlp,

‘o

0

0

I

I

N
.

0
0

N

00

0
0

N

C:11

0
0

N

0

0

N

r-1
0

N

NI

01
r-I

0

0

N

N

cr

in

4.0

o
N

o

o

c-1

HARV00031700

Summary of findings: Early action analysis

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

How do early action applications at Harvard compare to regular action applicants?
Are patterns similar for the class of 2016 and the classes of 2007-2011?
• Both early action populations look demographically similar to one another,
compared to the regular action populations. Compared to regular action, early
action applicants have higher academic ratings, and include more male, Caucasian
a nd Asian applicants.
Are there any noticeable differences in the two early action populations?
• The new early action applicants appear to be more diverse than the previous early
action population, with higher percentages of African American, Hispanic, and
I nternational students.
What is the relationship between early action and yield rates?
• Yield rates are higher for early action applicants.
• African American and Hispanic applicants with high admissions ratings appear in this
2016 year to have had the largest increase in yield rates.
How much can we learn from only one year of having early action back in place?
• Not enough to be statistically confident in trends — it is worth revisiting the data
a nnually, particularly in light small demographic shifts in the matriculating class of
2016.
HARV00031701
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

15

Contents

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Part I: Access
A first

nle t the

rPt1 !rrl

nf ea r!" (
-71rInn

Shift in the gender balance and impact of concentration choice
Evaluating factors that play a role in Harvard College admission
Appendix: Data Tables

HARV00031702
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

16 1

Contents

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Part I: Access
A first look at the return of early action
Shift in the gender balance and impact of concentration choice
Evaluating factors that play a role in Harvard College admission
Appendix: Data Tables

HARV00031717
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

31

Methods

32

Goal:

Using various admissions ratings, how well can we approximate admit
rates by race/ethnicity and the demographic composition of the
admitted students pool?

Strategy:
• Fit a series of basic logistic regression models using data from classes of
2007-2016.
• Generate fitted probabilities of admissions - given an applicant's
characteristics how likely are they to be admitted (0-1)?
• For each class, select the 2100 applicants with the highest probability of
admissions as our simulated admitted class.
• Examine resulting demographics and admit rates by ethnicity.
Notes:
• Students with no academic index are excluded from this analysis.
• The following analysis is preliminary and for discussion.
HARV00031718
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

Models Used

Model 1: Academic only
Academic Index
Academic Rating

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Model 2: Add Legacy and
Athlete
Academic Index
Academic Rating
Legacy
Athlete

Model 3: Add Personal and
Extracurricular
Academic Index
Academic Rating
Legacy
Athlete
Personal Rating
Extracurricular Rating

Model 4: Add Demographics
Academic Index
Academic Rating
Legacy
Athlete
Personal Rating
Extracurricular Rating
Gender
Ethnicity

HARV00031 719
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

7

Projected Admitted Student Pools

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

100% 6%
9
0%

7%
itrz=1
l

10%

8%

9%

9%

8
0%

11%
7
0%

8
%
31%

_I Native American

26%

6
0%
•
Hispanic

Ca

50%

International
African American
•

4
0%

Unknown
•
3
0%
48%
2
0%

Asian
•

51%
44%

White
•

38%

10%
0
%
Model 1

Unknown
White

Model 4

Legacy and Athlete

Extracurricular and
Personal

Legacy and Athlete

Extracurricular and
Personal

Demographics

Model 1
43.04%
0.67%
7.27%
2.42%
0.21%

Model 2
31.40%

Model 3
25.99%

1.83%
5.86%
2.62%
0.32%

2.36%
7.39%
4.07%
0.41%

Model 4
17.97%
11.12%

8.02%

9.93%
48.03%

9.14%
50.63%

Actual

Demographics

Academics Only

Hispanic
N ative American

Model 3

Academics Only

Asian
African American
I nternational

Model 2

Highly (Innfirlpin43Arnpiy's FyPc only

7.68%
9.83%
1.21%
8.11%
44.08%

Actual
18.66%
10.46%
8.90%
9.46%
1.23%
8.09%
43.21%

HARV00031720

34

Projected Admit Rates

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

20%
18%
16%
14%
-U-Asian
Om
NI
I

•

IN-African American
International
-E-Hispanic
a-Native American
E-Unknown
- U-White

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Academics Only

Legacy and Athlete

Extracurricular and
Personal

Demographics

Academics Only

Asian
African American
I nternational
Hispanic
N ative American
Unknown
White

Actual

Legacy and Athlete

Model 1
17.35%

Model 2
12.66%
2.07%

Extracurricular and
Personal
Model 3
10.48%
2.67%

4.14%
2.53%
2.98%
11.70%
11.81%

5.22%
3.94%
3.81%
10.77%
12.45%

0.75%
5.13%
2.34%
1.97%
9.45%
9.43%

Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only

Demographics
Model 4
7.24%
12.59%
5.42%
9.51%
11.17%
9.56%
10.84%

Actual
7.63%
12.00%
6.37%
9.27%
11.43%
9.67%
10.77%

HARV00031 721

35

What have we learned?

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

• Once we account for ratings and demographic factors, we can closely predict what the
admitted class wil l look like.
• With current data, we explain a significant amount of the variation in admission, but further
details (especially around the personal rating) may provide further insight.
• There are a variety of factors that quantitative data is likely to miss or ratings do not capture.
We'd like to better understand:
• Exceptional talent (music, art, writing)
• The role of context cases
• The role of the personal statement/essay
• Measures of socio-economic status (HFAI Flag, Low Income Flag)

HAP V00031722
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

361

Next steps

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

• Determining priorities, timing, and audiences
• Should this work be shared with additional audiences (e.g. President Faust,
Dean Smith, Dean Hammonds)?
• What are your priorities?
• The Finance Committee has expressed interest in a number of questions related
to Harvard's affordability initiatives.

HARV00031723
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

37

Next Steps: Addressing questions raised about admissions and financial aid
Research Question

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Next Steps

Part I: Access
1.

What is the effect on our applicant pool and yield of
reintroducing early action?

2
.

Is the shift in the gender balance at Harvard College due to
increased interest and recruitment for SEAS?

3
.

• Who else should see this work?
• To further address the question of bias, is
there more data to elaborate our
understanding of the role of the personal
essay and other factors?

Is there bias against Asians in college admissions?

Part II: Affordability
4
.

What is the effect of our financial aid policies on our
applicant pools and yields?

5.

How affordable is Harvard to the "typical" family?

6.

How much growth in the aid budget can the FAS sustain?

• These questions were raised by the Finance
Committee of the Corporation.
• How do we think about affordability in the
current budget climate?
• Who are the audiences, beyond the
Corporation?

Part Ill: Achievement
7
.

How can we measure achievement among Harvard College
graduates?

Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

• OIR has gathered a variety of options for
outcomes including National Student
Clearinghouse data, AA&D data, and student
surveys.
• How would you prioritize this question
relative to others?
HARV00031724

7

Contents

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Part I: Access
A first look at the return of early action
Shift in the gender balance and impact of concentration choice
Evaluating factors that play a role in Harvard College admission
Appendix: Data Tables

HARV00031725
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

Compared to regular applicant pool, new and old early action pools look similar
2016

2007-2011
Early Action

Early Action

Total

Regular

Total

Regular

Gender
Female
Male

49.0%
51.0%

50.6%
49.4%

50.2%
49.8%

47.4%
52.6%

48.5%
51.5%

48.3%
51.7%

Parent Education
Some College
Harvard Grad
No College

85.1%
7.1%
7.8%

84.1%
2.1%
13.8%

84.3%
3.2%
12.5%

83.7%
8.1%
8.2%

85.0%
1.7%
13.3%

84.8%
2.5%
12.7%

Race Ethnicity
African American
Asian
Hispanic
I nternational
Native American
Other
Unknown
White

4.7%
24.2%
6.5%
11.3%
0.8%
0.9%
7.7%
43.9%

8.4%
20.5%
9.4%
16.0%
1.1%
1.5%
7.4%
35.8%

7.6%
21.3%
8.8%
15.0%
1.0%
1.3%
7.4%
37.5%

8.9%
21.4%
9.0%
14.0%
1.1%
0.0%
7.0%
38.7%

9.9%
20.3%
10.3%
19.1%
1.0%
0.0%
7.2%
32.2%

9.8
%
20.4%
10.1%
18.5%
1.0%
0.0%
7.2%
33.0%

Academic Rating
Academic 1
Academic 2
Academic 3
Academic 4
Academic 5

2.1%
48.1%
41.3%
7.6%
0.9%

0.5%
31.2%
48.9%
15.8%
3.6%

0.8%
35.0%
47.2%
14.0%
3.0%

1.6%
49.8%
35.9%
9.6%
3.1%

0.3%
38.1%
41.1%
14.5%
6.0%

0.5%
39.6%
40.4%
13.9%
5.6%

Fee Waiver
No
Yes

95.2%
4.8%

88.9%
11.1%

90.3%
9.7%

92.7%
7.3%

87.6%
12.4%

88.2%
11.8%
HARV00031726

Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

2016 early action pool is more diverse than old early action pools
2007-2011

2016

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

All

Gender
Female
Male

49.0
%
51.0
%

47.4%
52.6%

48.7%
51.3%

Parent Education
Some College
Harvard Grad
No College

85.1%
7.1%
7.8%

83.7%
8.1%
8.2%

84.9%
7.2%
7.9%

White

4.7%
24.2%
6.5%
11.3%
0.8%
0.9%
7.7%
43.9%

8.9%
21.4%
9.0%
14.0%
1.1%
0.0%
7.0%
38.7%

5.4%
23.7%
6.9%
11.7%
0.8%
0.8%
7.6%
43.1%

Academic Rating
Academic 1
Academic 2
Academic 3
Academic 4
Academic 5

2.1%
48.1%
41.3%
7.6%
0.9%

1.6%
49.8%
35.9%
9.6%
3.1%

2.0%
48.3%
40.5%
7.9%
1.2%

Fee Waiver
No
Yes

95.2%
4.8%

92.7%
7.3%

94.8%
5.2%

Race Ethnicity
African American
Asian
Hispanic
I nternational
N ative American
Other Race/Ethnicity
Unknown Race/Ethnicity

HARV00031727
Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only

41

Model Fit

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Admit Rates
Model 4
7.24%
12.59%
5.42%

Actual

Difference

7.63%
12.00%
6.37%

-0.39%
0.59%
-0.95%

Unknown

9.51%
11.17%
9.56%

9.27%
11.43%
9.67%

0.23%
-0.26%
-0.12%

White

10.84%

10.77%

0.06%

Asian
African American
I nternational
Hispanic
Native American

Asian
African American
I nternational
Hispanic
N ative American
Unknown
White

Entering Classes
Model 4
17.97%
11.12%
7.68%
9.83%
1.21%
8.11%
44.08%

Difference
Actual
-0.69%
18.66%
0.66%
10.46%
-1.22%
8.90%
9.46%
1.23%
8.09%
43.21%

0.37%
-0.02%
0.02%
0.87%

HARV00031728
Highly Confidential - Attorney's Eyes Only

42

Model Fit

PRELIMINARY DRAFT

Difference in Projected vs. Actual Admit Rate
2
007
Asian

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0.002412 0.004282 0.002479 0.005113 0.012497 0.007495 0.004567 0.002473 0.000407 0.000752

African Ar 0.019531 -0.00496 -0.00075 0.003436 -0.01049 -0.01558 -0.00816 -0.01232 0.000682 -0.01331
I nternatio 0.015547 0.014264 0.010059 0.009594 0.002495 0.014182 0.011458 0.009821 0.006937 0.006522
Hispanic

0.003422 0.002778 -0.01048

N ative An 0.037838

-0.0116 -0.00537

0 -0.00588 -0.01415 0.031674

0.00521 -0.00038

0.00736 -0.00927

0.02381 -0.00893 0.009494

-0.0097

-0.0069 -0.02667

Unknown

-0.00079 -0.00096 -0.00564 -0.00755 -0.00792 0.007795 -0.00067 0.038691 0.011152

White

-0.01003 -0.00613 -0.00169 0.001581 -0.00476 0.002299 0.002692 0.005373

0.00307

0.00121

0

Difference in Projected vs. Actual Admitted Class Demographics
2
007
Asian

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

-0.0056

-0.0083

-0.0059

-0.009

-0.0272

-0.0107

-0.0054

0.0023

0.0063

-0.0055

African Ar

-0.01

0.0023

1E-04

-0.0012

0.0078

0.0176

0.0122

0.0193

0.0037

0.0156

I nte rnati c

-0.0151

-0.0134

-0.0117

-0.0096

-0.0036

-0.0175

-0.014

-0.0113

-0.0108

-0.0149

Hispanic

-0.0028

-0.002

0
.0078

0.0106

0.0045

0.013

-0.0025

0.0049

-0.007

0.0119

N ative An

-0.0034

-0.0001

0
.0005

0.0016

-0.0034

-0.002

0.0014

-0.0005

0.0015

0.0037

Unknown

0
.0001

0
.0004

0
.0049

0.0083

0.0069

-0.0056

0.0053

-0.0103

-0.0042

-0.0045

White

0
.0369

0.021

0
.0045

-0.0006

0.0148

0.0052

0.0029

-0.0044

0.0106

-0.0063

HARV00031729
Highly Confidential - Attorneys Eyes Only

713