Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College et al
Filing
421
DECLARATION re 412 MOTION for Summary Judgment by Students for Fair Admissions, Inc.. (Attachments: # 1 Exhibit 1, # 2 Exhibit 2, # 3 Exhibit 3, # 4 Exhibit 4, # 5 Exhibit 5, # 6 Exhibit 6, # 7 Exhibit 7, # 8 Exhibit 8, # 9 Exhibit 9, # 10 Exhibit 10, # 11 Exhibit 11, # 12 Exhibit 12, # 13 Exhibit 13, # 14 Exhibit 14, # 15 Exhibit 15, # 16 Exhibit 16, # 17 Exhibit 17, # 18 Exhibit 18, # 19 Exhibit 19, # 20 Exhibit 20, # 21 Exhibit 21, # 22 Exhibit 22, # 23 Exhibit 23, # 24 Exhibit 24, # 25 Exhibit 25, # 26 Exhibit 26, # 27 Exhibit 27, # 28 Exhibit 28, # 29 Exhibit 29, # 30 Exhibit 30, # 31 Exhibit 31, # 32 Exhibit 32, # 33 Exhibit 33, # 34 Exhibit 34, # 35 Exhibit 35, # 36 Exhibit 36, # 37 Exhibit 37, # 38 Exhibit 38, # 39 Exhibit 39, # 40 Exhibit 40, # 41 Exhibit 41, # 42 Exhibit 42, # 43 Exhibit 43, # 44 Exhibit 44, # 45 Exhibit 45, # 46 Exhibit 46, # 47 Exhibit 47, # 48 Exhibit 48, # 49 Exhibit 49, # 50 Exhibit 50, # 51 Exhibit 51, # 52 Exhibit 52, # 53 Exhibit 53, # 54 Exhibit 54, # 55 Exhibit 55, # 56 Exhibit 56, # 57 Exhibit 57, # 58 Exhibit 58, # 59 Exhibit 59, # 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170 Exhibit 170, # 171 Exhibit 171, # 172 Exhibit 172, # 173 Exhibit 173, # 174 Exhibit 174, # 175 Exhibit 175, # 176 Exhibit 176, # 177 Exhibit 177, # 178 Exhibit 178, # 179 Exhibit 179, # 180 Exhibit 180, # 181 Exhibit 181, # 182 Exhibit 182, # 183 Exhibit 183, # 184 Exhibit 184, # 185 Exhibit 185, # 186 Exhibit 186, # 187 Exhibit 187, # 188 Exhibit 188, # 189 Exhibit 189, # 190 Exhibit 190, # 191 Exhibit 191, # 192 Exhibit 192, # 193 Exhibit 193, # 194 Exhibit 194, # 195 Exhibit 195, # 196 Exhibit 196, # 197 Exhibit 197, # 198 Exhibit 198, # 199 Exhibit 199, # 200 Exhibit 200, # 201 Exhibit 201, # 202 Exhibit 202, # 203 Exhibit 203, # 204 Exhibit 204, # 205 Exhibit 205, # 206 Exhibit 206, # 207 Exhibit 207, # 208 Exhibit 208, # 209 Exhibit 209, # 210 Exhibit 210, # 211 Exhibit 211, # 212 Exhibit 212, # 213 Exhibit 213, # 214 Exhibit 214, # 215 Exhibit 215, # 216 Exhibit 216, # 217 Exhibit 217, # 218 Exhibit 218, # 219 Exhibit 219, # 220 Exhibit 220, # 221 Exhibit 221, # 222 Exhibit 222, # 223 Exhibit 223, # 224 Exhibit 224, # 225 Exhibit 225, # 226 Exhibit 226, # 227 Exhibit 227, # 228 Exhibit 228, # 229 Exhibit 229, # 230 Exhibit 230, # 231 Exhibit 231, # 232 Exhibit 232, # 233 Exhibit 233, # 234 Exhibit 234, # 235 Exhibit 235, # 236 Exhibit 236, # 237 Exhibit 237, # 238 Exhibit 238, # 239 Exhibit 239, # 240 Exhibit 240, # 241 Exhibit 241, # 242 Exhibit 242, # 243 Exhibit 243, # 244 Exhibit 244, # 245 Exhibit 245, # 246 Exhibit 246, # 247 Exhibit 247, # 248 Exhibit 248, # 249 Exhibit 249, # 250 Exhibit 250, # 251 Exhibit 251, # 252 Exhibit 252, # 253 Exhibit 253, # 254 Exhibit 254, # 255 Exhibit 255, # 256 Exhibit 256, # 257 Exhibit 257, # 258 Exhibit 258, # 259 Exhibit 259, # 260 Exhibit 260, # 261 Exhibit 261)(Consovoy, William) (Additional attachment(s) added on 6/18/2018: # 262 Unredacted version of Declaration, # 263 Exhibit 1 (filed under seal), # 264 Exhibit 2 (filed under seal), # 265 Exhibit 5 (filed under seal), # 266 Exhibit 6 (filed under seal), # 267 Exhibit 7 (filed under seal), # 268 Exhibit 8 (filed under seal), # 269 Exhibit 9 (filed under seal), # 270 Exhibit 10 (filed under seal)) (Montes, Mariliz). (Additional attachment(s) added on 6/18/2018: # 271 Exhibit 11 (filed under seal), # 272 Exhibit 12(filed under seal), # 273 Exhibit 13 (filed under seal), # 274 Exhibit 14 (filed under seal), # 275 Exhibit 16 (filed under seal), # 276 Exhibit 17(filed under seal), # 277 Exhibit 18(filed under seal), # 278 Exhibit 19 (filed under seal), # 279 Exhibit 20 (filed under seal), # 280 Exhibit 22 (filed under seal), # 281 Exhibit 23 (filed under seal), # 282 Exhibit 24 (filed under seal), # 283 Exhibit 25(filed under seal), # 284 Exhibit 26 (filed under seal), # 285 Exhibit 28 (filed under seal), # 286 Exhibit 29 (filed under seal), # 287 Exhibit 31 (filed under seal), # 288 Exhibit 32 (filed under seal), # 289 Exhibit 33 (filed under seal), # 290 Exhibit 35 (filed under seal), # 291 Exhibit 36 (filed under seal), # 292 Exhibit 37 (filed under seal), # 293 Exhibit 38(filed under seal), # 294 Exhibit 39 (filed under seal), # 295 Exhibit 40 (filed under seal), # 296 Exhibit 41, # 297 Exhibit 42 (filed under seal), # 298 Exhibit 43 (filed under seal), # 299 Exhibit 44(filed under seal), # 300 Exhibit 45 (filed under seal), # 301 Exhibit 46 (filed under seal), # 302 Exhibit 47 (filed under seal), # 303 Exhibit 48 (filed under seal), # 304 Exhibit 51 (filed under seal)) (Montes, Mariliz).
EXHIBIT 3
Highly Confidential Attorneys' Eyes Only
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HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL-ATTORNEYS EYES ONLY
3
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
4
FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
5
Civil Action No:
1:14-cv-14176-ADB
----------------------------X
6
STUDENTS FOR FAIR ADMISSIONS,
7
INC.,
8
9
10
Plaintiff,
v.
PRESIDENT AND FELLOWS OF
HARVARD COLLEGE
11
(HARVARD CORPORATION),
12
13
14
Defendant.
-----------------------------X
VIDEOTAPED DEPOSITION OF
15
DAVID CARD, Ph.D.
16
Washington, DC
17
April 27, 2018
18
9:07 AM
19
20
21
Reported by:
22
Karen Brynteson, RMR, CRR, FAPR
23
Job No. 139809
24
25
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3
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
4
THE WITNESS:
I have read the
5
phrase, and I have some
6
understanding of it.
7
8
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
You're aware that that's --
9
that's -- that's the phrase that Harvard
10
applied to its own admissions process, I
11
assume?
12
A.
I am, yes.
13
Q.
Okay.
Have you written any
14
papers that actually analyze the -- the
15
extent to which various factors play a
16
role in admission under a holistic
17
admissions process?
18
A.
Well, if one interprets
19
holistic to mean evaluating different
20
characteristics of students, potentially,
21
I studied that indirectly, but I have not
22
written any papers, I believe, that would
23
use the word holistic admissions in them.
24
25
Q.
Have you looked at -- have you
written any papers that are specific to
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the question of how race affects college
3
admissions decisions by universities?
4
MS. ELLSWORTH:
5
Object to the
form.
6
THE WITNESS:
I have written a
7
paper on the effect of ending
8
affirmative action policies in
9
Texas and California on the
10
probabilities that students send
11
their SATs to different colleges,
12
which would indirectly affect that,
13
what colleges can do, I guess.
14
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
15
Q.
Am I right that that paper was
16
about basically analyzing applicant
17
behavior?
18
A.
Yes.
19
Q.
It wasn't -- it wasn't about
20
analyzing what colleges did with those
21
applications once they were received, was
22
it?
23
A.
Well, indirectly.
There are
24
-- there are figures and tables in that
25
paper which show the changes in admission
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rates of different groups.
3
evidence on that.
4
Q.
So it has
Did you -- did you purport in
5
that paper to analyze the strength of
6
various factors that were actually used
7
by the Admissions Department in deciding
8
who to admit and who to reject?
9
A.
Well, indirectly I -- I guess
10
it does show that because it has changes
11
in admission rates of different racial
12
groups as a result of the end of
13
affirmative action policies.
14
Q.
Did you build a multivariate
15
logit model to analyze the admissions
16
processes for the universities that were
17
the subject of that study?
18
A.
No.
19
Q.
You just basically reported
20
how the -- how the rates of -- the
21
admission rates of various groups changed
22
in two different periods of time?
23
A.
Among other things, yeah.
24
Q.
What else?
25
A.
Well, there was many
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institutions involved and there was
3
multiple periods before and after.
4
Q.
But until this case, I guess
5
what I'm getting at, is have you ever
6
been involved in the creation of a -- of
7
a -- of a multivariate logit model to
8
estimate the effects of factors on
9
college admissions decisions?
10
A.
I don't believe so, no.
11
Q.
On -- have -- and I guess
12
because my earlier questions were about
13
papers you have written, I assume that
14
your answer that you haven't built that
15
kind of a model to measure the effect on
16
college admissions of various factors
17
necessarily means you haven't published
18
any papers on that question either?
19
20
21
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
Well, if I
22
haven't written them, they haven't
23
published them, yes, that's
24
correct.
25
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
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should exclude any other variables based
3
on the potential that race was affecting
4
them?
5
A.
I -- when I was finishing my
6
-- in the process of trying to finish my
7
rebuttal report, it was very clear that
8
there were a number of disagreements
9
between Professor Arcidiacono and me on a
10
couple of issues.
11
And so I -- I was able to ask
12
Dean Fitzsimmons directly in a telephone
13
conversation if race was involved in the
14
personal rating, for example, and he said
15
no.
16
17
Q.
his testimony?
18
19
MS. ELLSWORTH:
22
Object to the
form.
20
21
Did you do anything to verify
THE WITNESS:
No.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
You're familiar with what it
23
means to interact a variable in the
24
multivariate logit model?
25
A.
In general terms, yes.
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a difference in a model?
3
MS. ELLSWORTH:
4
Sorry.
Object
to the form.
5
THE WITNESS:
Well, I think I
6
just showed that it does make a
7
small difference.
8
that's self-evident from what I
9
just said.
10
So I think
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
11
Q.
You and Professor Arcidiacono,
12
I think you just acknowledged, you made
13
some adjustments to your models after
14
reviewing each others' reports in this
15
case?
16
A.
Yes.
17
Q.
Okay.
For example, in your
18
rebuttal report you adopted Professor
19
Arcidiacono's ratings methodology?
20
A.
Yes.
21
Q.
That had the effect of
22
dropping many, but not all, of the
23
perfect predictions from your model?
24
A.
Yes.
25
Q.
Do you know about how many
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perfect predictions are still in your
3
model, even after making that change?
4
A.
No, not precisely.
There is
5
some perfect predictions that are perfect
6
predict admits, so some people who would
7
be predicted to get in with 100 percent
8
probability, and there is some who would
9
be predicted to not get in with
10
11
100 percent probability.
Q.
Do you know what the relative
12
breakdown is between the perfect predicts
13
of admission and the perfect predicts of
14
rejection?
15
16
MS. ELLSWORTH:
form.
17
18
Object to the
THE WITNESS:
Not precisely,
no.
19
(Card Deposition Exhibit 7,
20
New Hard Models printout, was marked
21
for identification.)
22
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
23
Q.
I have handed you what has
24
been marked as Exhibit 7.
25
represent to you that this is information
I will
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that's taken from your workpaper that
3
just shows the number of perfect
4
predictions both for admits and rejects
5
in your new model versus your old model.
6
And I will also note for the
7
record, and apologize that this should
8
have been printed landscape form, so you
9
kind of have to tear the two pages apart
10
and hold them next to each other to read
11
the exhibit.
12
If you flip over, if you are
13
looking for the final in the old models,
14
you have to flip over the page.
15
A.
Okay.
16
Q.
Sorry about that.
Do you have
17
any reason to doubt that these numbers
18
accurately reflect the number of perfect
19
predictions in your models?
20
21
A.
my workpaper, then it is correct, yeah.
22
23
If it is accurately taken from
Q.
I will represent that it has
been.
24
A.
Okay.
25
Q.
Certainly if that's wrong, I'm
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sure the folks on the other side of the
3
table will let us know.
4
But this indicates that for
5
the old models that you used, that a
6
number of perfect predictions was 29,445
7
perfect predictions of reject; is that
8
right?
9
A.
Right.
10
Q.
And 527 perfect predictions of
11
admit?
12
A.
Correct.
13
Q.
And in the new model, the
14
number of perfect predictions of reject
15
is 5,675?
16
A.
Yes.
17
Q.
And the number of perfect
18
predictions of admit is one.
19
A.
Right.
20
Q.
So that shows that the vast
21
majority of perfect predictions both in
22
your old model and in your new model, if
23
this is accurate, were for rejects,
24
correct?
25
A.
Correct.
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Q.
You also updated your model to
3
incorporate the activity variables for
4
extracurricular activities that Professor
5
Arcidiacono used?
6
A.
In one of the robustness
7
analysis, I did, I used his preferred
8
measures, yes.
9
of my rebuttal report.
10
Q.
This would be Exhibit 16
And is it your testimony that
11
that adjustment is -- is in your new
12
preferred model or only for one of the
13
robustness models?
14
15
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
16
THE WITNESS:
I believe that
17
the full set of his preferred
18
specification is -- is in
19
Exhibit 16, his robustness
20
analysis.
21
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
22
23
Q.
Did -- do any -- strike that.
Professor Arcidiacono's models
24
in both his first report and his second
25
report include two different samples,
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any difference for the statistical
3
analysis, so.
4
5
6
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
And athletes is the only group
that you do that for?
7
A.
Yes.
8
Q.
Okay.
And the reason why, and
9
I guess you say it right -- right --
10
right here in footnote 97, that your
11
understanding is that recruited athletes
12
are part of the same admissions process
13
as all other applicants.
14
correct?
Is that
15
A.
Yes.
16
Q.
I'm sorry, before we go there,
17
let me just ask:
18
that you are referencing in footnote 97,
19
you don't do any other modeling in either
20
of your reports that looks separately at
21
the non-ALDC population from the ALDC
22
population?
23
A.
Other than this model
No, because as I explain in my
24
original report and, again, in my
25
rebuttal report, I believe that there is
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a variety of evidence from the
3
documentary -- or from the evidence from
4
the depositions and from the other
5
sources, including my direct query to the
6
dean by telephone.
7
But also there is a question
8
that was asked that shows up on a web
9
site, asking about whether athletes at
10
Harvard are part of the regular
11
admissions process.
12
Anyway, my understanding is
13
that these four groups are all part of
14
the regular admissions process.
15
16
17
18
19
Q.
And when you say on the web
site, whose web site do you mean?
A.
I believe it was on the
Harvard admissions web site.
Q.
And the dean himself told you
20
that they are part of the regular
21
admissions process?
22
23
24
25
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
they were.
I asked him if
He said they were.
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Q.
And from that baseline, you
3
then do a number of simulations that
4
analyze the effect of various
5
race-neutral alternatives, correct?
6
A.
Correct.
I do the kind of
7
simulations that have been done in the
8
literature before and that Professor
9
Arcidiacono performs for Mr. Kahlenberg
10
11
as well, yeah.
Q.
And, in fact, your method
12
closely follows that used by Mr.
13
Kahlenberg, assisted by Professor
14
Arcidiacono.
15
A.
Right?
Right, but this is a method
16
that is pretty standard in the literature
17
and was used by several of the other
18
papers in the area.
19
Q.
There were two key
20
differences, I think, between your
21
approach with -- between your approach
22
and those of Mr. Kahlenberg's, at least
23
in your initial report?
24
25
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
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Q.
But in your -- I guess I just
3
-- I just want to understand.
4
record as saying that this doesn't, this
5
simulation, does a poor job of generating
6
racial diversity.
7
You're on
Do you think it does a poor
8
job of generating socioeconomic
9
diversity?
10
MS. ELLSWORTH:
11
THE WITNESS:
Objection.
Well, the
12
difference is that these are the
13
categories of race that I'm using
14
in this analysis.
15
Now, there are other
16
categories of race, but -- and
17
other ways of counting, for
18
example, who is Asian American or
19
who is African American.
20
But in socioeconomic
21
diversity, for instance, I have, in
22
my preferred specification of the
23
model, I would like to take account
24
of, in the admissions process, I
25
would really like to take account
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of parental occupation.
3
also want to take account of
4
parental education.
5
You might
So socioeconomic status is a
6
very, very broad category, very
7
important for understanding things.
8
These are the categories that
9
I was able to come up with quickly,
10
but -- in this analysis, come up
11
with in this analysis, but you
12
could -- I would be reluctant to
13
make an assessment of socioeconomic
14
diversity just on these four
15
numbers.
16
17
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
So basically the size of the
18
increases here are not sufficient to
19
convince you that this scenario does a
20
good job of increasing socioeconomic
21
diversity?
22
23
24
25
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Objection,
asked and answered.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
That's your testimony?
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BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
And, again, I'm just staying
in paragraph 192.
A.
He eliminates the preferences,
6
yeah, and he changes the -- the four SES
7
characteristics slightly.
8
9
Q.
Right.
And you determined
that these simulations, you know, as he
10
-- as he -- as he makes those
11
adjustments, are insufficient because the
12
race-neutral alternative "produces a
13
class that is different from the current
14
class in the dimensions I understand
15
Harvard cares about."
16
17
That's in paragraph 195,
correct?
18
A.
Yes, that's what I say, yes.
19
Q.
All right.
20
So looking at the
Exhibit 26 in your report.
21
A.
Okay.
22
Q.
Which differences in your view
23
render this as insufficient because it
24
produces a class that is different from
25
the current class in dimensions that you
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Q.
It's 26 percent compared to
3
the 30 percent drop that you termed as
4
dramatic, correct?
5
A.
Right.
6
Q.
But, again, do you -- do you
7
have a -- do you have any understanding
8
of what difference would be acceptable to
9
Harvard, even if it were a decline in any
10
of these racial categories?
11
12
MS. ELLSWORTH:
form.
13
14
15
Object to the
THE WITNESS:
No.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
And you don't have a personal
16
understanding as to what you think is an
17
acceptable or not acceptable decline for
18
purposes of a race-neutral alternative?
19
20
MS. ELLSWORTH:
form.
21
22
23
Object to the
THE WITNESS:
No.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Did the committee tell you
24
that an African American class that
25
represents 10 percent of the admitted
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table?
3
A.
So if we look in my Exhibit
5
Q.
Your Exhibit 13?
6
A.
Um-hum.
4
13.
We can see how
7
starting with -- with my model at the
8
bottom, now this is -- already I'm
9
including ALDCs in my analysis, how the
10
effect of interactions and personal
11
rating and so on, of parental occupation,
12
changes the -- changes the coefficients
13
in my model and gets you from my model to
14
Professor Arcidiacono's model.
15
Q.
Right.
Do you actually cite
16
Table 4.2N anywhere in your rebuttal
17
report?
18
A.
I can't say for sure I do cite
19
that table directly, but I cite or
20
address each of the issues, I think, that
21
he is trying to address here.
22
Q.
Setting aside the
23
disagreements that I know you have with
24
Professor Arcidiacono about his modeling
25
choices, anywhere in your expert report
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2
do you challenge the calculations on
3
Table 4.2N?
4
5
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
6
THE WITNESS:
So, in other
7
words, you're asking me if we took
8
what Professor Arcidiacono says is
9
his model and estimated it the way
10
he says he's doing it here, you
11
would get these numbers?
12
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
13
Q.
Right.
14
A.
Yes, I believe that's correct.
15
Q.
I mean, do you think he is
16
misstating his model?
17
disagree with his modeling decisions, but
18
do you think he is not actually
19
reflecting -- do you think his
20
calculations somehow reflect a
21
misunderstanding of his own model?
22
23
24
25
Not -- not do you
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
not his model.
Well, this is
This is his
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2
adjustments to my model in my
3
original report.
4
5
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Thank you.
Thank you.
That's
6
correct.
7
you think he is misstating your -- you
8
referred to his understanding of the
9
model.
So I guess my question is do
Like I guess my question is do
10
you think that, setting aside the
11
modeling choices, there's something in
12
here that makes the calculations
13
incorrect because he is not accurately
14
reflecting the data that underlies your
15
model?
16
A.
I think these calculations are
17
correct.
18
to understand if these -- if his row
19
descriptions are a complete description
20
of everything he has done, but my
21
understanding, for example, row 1, tells
22
us that right from the beginning, this is
23
different than my -- the model in my
24
original report because he has excluded
25
the ALDCs.
I would have to read carefully
And then row 2 says he is
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doing interactions and so on.
3
Q.
Right.
But he didn't -- he
4
didn't, as far as you know, and I guess
5
your report doesn't contain any challenge
6
to the calculations of the numbers that
7
are reported here?
8
9
10
A.
I don't believe we found any
errors in this, I found any errors in
this calculation, no.
11
Q.
Okay.
You mention the fact
12
that you do what you call a robustness
13
analysis.
14
Exhibits 14 through 16 of your report or
15
18 of your report, rebuttal report?
16
17
A.
And that's set forth in
And sometimes in the footnotes
and other places, yes.
18
Q.
Right.
So let me just ask you
19
about Exhibit 13, which you just referred
20
to.
21
A.
Yes.
22
Q.
This is -- this is -- this is
23
a chart in which you purport to
24
demonstrate that if you make adjustments
25
to Professor Arcidiacono's model, it has
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2
A.
Yes.
3
Q.
And that is, in fact, what
4
this exhibit suggests, correct?
5
A.
Yes.
6
Q.
Okay.
Did you ever construct
7
a model of the personal rating in either
8
of your reports?
9
A.
No.
10
Q.
You referred several times to
11
Professor Arcidiacono's model, but you
12
did not do your own model of personal
13
rating, correct?
14
A.
Correct.
15
Q.
And is that because you felt
16
that there was not enough observables in
17
the data to estimate a reliable model of
18
the personal rating?
19
A.
I personally felt like we
20
could use the personal rating and the
21
academic rating and the extracurricular
22
rating as ratings.
23
other variables, some of the other
24
variables that go into the determination
25
of those ratings, and that it would be
We could include the
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BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
of racial bias?
5
6
MS. ELLSWORTH:
9
10
Object to the
form.
7
8
But it could also be because
THE WITNESS:
Well, I can't
actually rule that out.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Can you come up with a logical
11
explanation as to why the essays would
12
explain that difference?
13
MS. ELLSWORTH:
14
THE WITNESS:
Objection.
No.
I haven't
15
really given any thought to that.
16
I -- it's pretty standard in this
17
kind of statistical analysis to
18
have unobserved components and to
19
be carefully thinking about what
20
exactly is missing and how that
21
could potentially play a role, but
22
it's -- in my experience it isn't
23
always useful to speculate much
24
more beyond that, just other than
25
to notice that there are lots of
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look at is Professor Arcidiacono's model,
3
correct?
4
A.
Correct, because I'm -- my
5
personal view is that we should use the
6
personal rating, rather than a model of
7
the personal rating.
8
personal rating as given.
9
10
Q.
Because Dean Fitzsimmons told
you race doesn't affect it?
11
12
You should take the
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
13
THE WITNESS:
Well, because
14
among other pieces of evidence in
15
the records, it seems like the
16
general belief is that race is not
17
a component of a personal rating,
18
yeah.
19
20
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Do you think that -- do you
21
think that -- do you agree that there is
22
a gap in the personal ratings that white
23
applicants receive versus Asian
24
applicants?
25
A.
Yes.
Well, that's what we
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incentives of Harvard.
3
And I disagree with that type
4
of analysis -- that type of conclusion on
5
the basis of statistical evidence.
6
7
MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Can we take
a short break?
8
MS. ELLSWORTH:
9
THE VIDEO OPERATOR:
10
is 3:13.
11
Okay.
The time
We are off the record.
(A recess was taken at
12
3:12�p.m., after which the deposition
13
resumed at 3:28 p.m.)
14
THE VIDEO OPERATOR:
15
is 3:28.
16
The time
record.
17
18
We are back on the
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Do you think that Asian
19
Americans on average have less attractive
20
personal qualities than white applicants
21
in Harvard's application pool?
22
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Objection.
23
Are you asking for a personal
24
opinion?
25
MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
No.
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3
4
5
THE WITNESS:
I have no way of
knowing that.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Can you think of -- do you
6
have any reason to believe that Asian
7
Americans are not as effervescent as
8
whites in Harvard's applicant pool?
9
MS. ELLSWORTH:
10
11
12
13
THE WITNESS:
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
So it could be true?
MS. ELLSWORTH:
15
THE WITNESS:
17
18
I have no way of
knowing that.
14
16
Objection.
Objection.
May or may not
be true.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
It is one possible explanation
19
for the difference in their personal
20
ratings?
21
22
23
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
Well, if -- if
24
effervescence was, indeed, a
25
significant determinative personal
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rating conditional on the other
3
factors then -- and you could
4
measure effervescence and you found
5
that, I guess I would -- then I
6
would say, well, you found that and
7
I would agree with it, but no one
8
has done that exercise so I don't
9
really know what to say.
10
11
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Well, someone's assigned
12
personal ratings to all of the
13
applicants?
14
A.
They are, yes.
15
Q.
Right.
So I am just asking,
16
do you -- do you think that an
17
explanation for the gap in the personal
18
ratings between Asian Americans and white
19
applicants is a lack of effervescence in
20
the Asian American pool?
21
22
23
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
I think the --
24
my understanding is that the
25
readers look for something they
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call personal qualities.
3
don't exactly know what those are,
4
but they -- they talk about that in
5
some of the materials I've seen.
6
And so I think that what I
And I
7
would probably believe to be true
8
is that they see slightly fewer
9
personal qualities conditional on
10
academic qualities.
11
all conditional on academic
12
qualities.
13
14
15
Again, this is
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
And why do you think that's
the case?
16
A.
I don't know exactly.
17
Q.
Well, you can't rule out the
18
fact that it is racial bias.
19
explanation could there be for why the
20
white applicants in Harvard's pool
21
receive higher personal ratings than the
22
Asian American applicants?
23
MS. ELLSWORTH:
24
THE WITNESS:
25
What other
Objection.
I don't really
-- I haven't really given that any
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thought directly.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Isn't that the entire question
5
that we need to answer when we decide
6
whether the personal ratings should be
7
included in the model?
8
9
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
10
THE WITNESS:
No, not at all,
11
because we see a difference between
12
Asian applicants and white
13
applicants in their extracurricular
14
rating and their academic rating,
15
statistically significant positive
16
gap.
17
I don't think that -- and, in
18
fact, I would never conclude that
19
that means that there is positive
20
racial bias in favor of Asian
21
applicants.
22
significant coefficient doesn't say
23
that there is a racial animus
24
against whites in the assignment of
25
academic credentials.
So the presence of a
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2
break, one question would be:
3
Americans as a whole have higher or lower
4
or the same personal qualities as, say,
5
white Americans?
6
Do Asian
But that's not really what's
7
relevant for my statistical model.
8
-- my interpretation of how someone might
9
answer that would be they might be
And I
10
thinking, well, as a whole, they are the
11
same, but when I'm assigning the personal
12
rating, what's relevant is I have got
13
some of these characteristics that I can
14
see, and some that I can't.
15
deficit on some of the ones that I can't
16
see.
17
There is a
So that could contribute to a
18
negative coefficient for Asians in that
19
assignment, just as there must be some or
20
there -- my interpretation is there must
21
be some unobserved characteristics of the
22
academic credentials of Asian Americans,
23
conditional on this broad set of other
24
academic qualities that we can observe in
25
the data and that Professor Arcidiacono
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A.
Let me look at my -- the
3
appendix -- you don't have tabs on
4
appendices here, so I am having a little
5
bit of trouble finding the right tabs.
6
7
Q.
If I told you it was 46, does
that number sound more or less correct?
8
A.
46 per year?
9
Q.
46 parental occupations.
10
A.
It seems to show in my
11
Exhibit 28 of my -- of my rebuttal report
12
that there is 28 categories -- 23
13
categories, excuse me.
14
15
Q.
23 categories for fathers,
right?
16
A.
Yes.
17
Q.
And 23 categories for mothers?
18
A.
Yes.
19
Q.
So that's 46, right?
20
A.
Correct.
21
And then there is
one omitted for each.
22
Q.
So 47?
23
A.
44.
24
Q.
48?
25
A.
44.
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2
prevent them from performing a stronger
3
role as they would in the model, if I had
4
some measures that did not have that
5
misclassification error.
6
Q.
We discussed this earlier, but
7
I just want to make sure I understand.
8
When you were deciding to put the
9
parental occupations in, did you test for
10
11
statistical significance?
A.
I'm not entirely sure of
12
whether, at what stage of the analysis
13
that kind of exercise would have been
14
done, so I can't say for sure.
15
Q.
You don't dispute that some of
16
the parental occupation categories vary
17
substantially from year to year?
18
19
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
20
THE WITNESS:
I don't dispute
21
that, for example, the category
22
unemployed disappears in some
23
years, and so one of the reasons --
24
or is much less frequent in some
25
years.
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for each race, your model?
3
A.
No.
4
Q.
None of that is disclosed
5
anywhere in your report, I take it?
6
A.
That I --
7
Q.
There is no -- there is no
8
such estimations disclosed anywhere in
9
your report?
10
MS. ELLSWORTH:
11
form.
12
Object to the
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
13
14
Q.
If you didn't do it, you
couldn't put it in your report?
15
A.
I believe that would be true.
16
Q.
It's not a trick question.
17
It's just late in the day.
18
19
20
21
Can you turn to Table 5.1N of
Mr. Arcidiacono's rebuttal report.
A.
Would this be in the text or
in the appendix?
22
Q.
It is page 47 of the report.
23
A.
Okay.
24
Q.
Did you in your rebuttal
25
report disclose any -- any dispute with
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the calculations on this table?
3
A.
No, I don't think so.
4
Q.
Is it also true with respect
5
6
7
8
9
to Table 5.2N, which is on page 50?
A.
12
13
14
Q.
And is that also true with
respect to 5.3N?
MS. ELLSWORTH:
What is the
question exactly?
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Does he have any dispute with
those calculations?
15
16
I agree with the calculations
underlying this table, yeah.
10
11
No.
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Just want to
know if there is any dispute --
17
THE WITNESS:
I do have a
18
dispute with the calculation in
19
Table 5.3N, yes.
20
21
22
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Did you disclose that dispute
in your rebuttal report?
23
A.
No.
24
Q.
What is your dispute?
25
A.
Well, this gets to a question
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2
A.
Oh.
3
Q.
So you conclude that the --
Yes.
4
that given the years that you just
5
described and the different racial
6
categories, that the actual probability
7
of seeing a pattern over a three-year
8
period is about 17 percent?
9
A.
Assuming for the sake of
10
simplicity that there's a 0.2 chance that
11
the group's average rate matches the
12
average admission rate for other
13
applicants, so that would be the same
14
kind of calculation that he does, so
15
assume that number, then take the 92
16
combinations, that's what I did.
17
Q.
You earlier said you didn't
18
challenge that number, you hadn't
19
challenged that calculation?
20
21
MS. ELLSWORTH:
form.
22
23
24
25
Object to the
THE WITNESS:
That 0.2 is his
calculation, yes.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
The -- your calculation
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2
assumes that each of those outcomes is
3
independent with one another?
4
A.
Yes.
5
Q.
Is that true?
6
A.
It would not be exactly true.
7
It would be -- it might be approximately
8
true, depending on the race group you are
9
thinking of.
10
11
Q.
What makes something
"approximately true"?
12
A.
Well, the actual calculation
13
for the permutations, I didn't try and
14
do.
15
calculation.
16
here.
17
I tried to do a simplified
Q.
That's what I have done
For example, you would agree,
18
right, that the Hispanic methodology
19
between IPEDS and the new methodology
20
does not differ?
21
22
23
24
25
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
No, I would
disagree with that.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
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one-pagers -- do you know what I mean by
3
a one-pager?
4
A.
5
6
I have a vague understanding
of what that is, yeah.
Q.
Have you seen any one-pagers
7
prepared by the admissions office during
8
the committee meeting process listing
9
IPED statistics before January 2013?
10
11
MS. ELLSWORTH:
form.
12
13
14
15
Object to the
THE WITNESS:
Repeat the
question again?
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Have you seen a one-pager
16
prepared by the admissions office during
17
the committee meeting process that lists
18
the IPED statistics prior to January
19
2013?
20
21
22
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Object to the
form.
THE WITNESS:
I have -- I have
23
only seen a couple of these forms,
24
and so I can't say I have done an
25
exhaustive search.
I was never
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2
searching for that.
3
believe I would have seen that.
4
But I don't
I believe the forms I looked
5
at are the ones that are referred
6
to in Professor Arcidiacono's
7
report.
8
9
10
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
And you also referred to some
in some documents in your report, right?
11
A.
I did.
12
Q.
Have you -- did you see
13
Professor Arcidiacono's note that the
14
IPEDS' number was stored differently in
15
the admissions database as it was
16
produced to him before the 2017
17
admissions cycle versus after?
18
A.
I believe that there is a
19
different field that it is captured in,
20
that's right.
21
Q.
And your report doesn't
22
challenge the -- that statement in
23
Professor Arcidiacono's report?
24
25
MS. ELLSWORTH:
Objection to
form.
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THE WITNESS:
I don't know
3
whether that field existed before,
4
but that's my understanding.
5
information has to be obtained from
6
a different field.
7
8
9
That
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
You noted that there was a
calculation error in calculating the
10
standard error of his double difference
11
in chart 2.6N in your rebuttal report?
12
A.
Yes.
13
Q.
He has acknowledged that
14
error?
15
A.
Yes.
16
Q.
I will go ahead and mark the
17
supplemental report.
18
(Card Deposition Exhibit
19
14, Errata to Rebuttal Expert Report of
20
Peter S. Arcidiacono, was marked for
21
identification.)
22
23
24
25
THE WITNESS:
Yes.
BY MR. STRAWBRIDGE:
Q.
Do you dispute the math for
his new calculation for standard error?
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NAME OF CASE:
2
DATE OF DEPOSITION:
3
NAME OF WITNESS:
4
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1.
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6
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To conform to the facts.
7
3.
To correct transcription errors.
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________________________
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SFFA v. Harvard, D. Mass. 14-cv-14176
April 27, 2018
David Card
Please see attached errata sheet.
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