State of Texas et al v. United States of America et al

Filing 64

REPLY in Support of 5 Opposed MOTION for Preliminary Injunction, filed by Phil Bryant, Paul R. LePage, Patrick L. McCrory, C.L. "Butch" Otter, Bill Schuette, State of Louisiana, State of Alabama, State of Arizona, State of Arkansas, State of Florida, State of Georgia, State of Idaho, State of Indiana, State of Kansas, State of Montana, State of Nebraska, State of North Dakota, State of Ohio, State of Oklahoma, State of South Carolina, State of South Dakota, State of Texas, State of Utah, State of West Virginia, State of Wisconsin. (Attachments: # 1 Exhibit Ex 1, # 2 Exhibit Ex. 2, # 3 Exhibit Ex. 3, # 4 Exhibit Ex. 4, # 5 Exhibit Ex. 5, # 6 Exhibit Ex. 6, # 7 Exhibit Ex. 7, # 8 Exhibit Ex. 8, # 9 Exhibit Ex. 9.a, # 10 Exhibit Ex. 9.b, # 11 Exhibit Ex. 10.a, # 12 Exhibit Ex. 10.b, # 13 Exhibit Ex. 10.c, # 14 Exhibit Ex. 10.d, # 15 Exhibit Ex. 10.e, # 16 Exhibit Ex. 10.f, # 17 Exhibit Ex. 10.g, # 18 Exhibit Ex. 10.h, # 19 Exhibit Ex. 10.i, # 20 Exhibit Ex. 10.j, # 21 Exhibit Ex. 10.k, # 22 Exhibit Ex. 10.l, # 23 Exhibit Ex. 10.m, # 24 Exhibit Ex. 10.n, # 25 Exhibit Ex. 10.0, # 26 Exhibit Ex. 10.p, # 27 Exhibit Ex. 10.q, # 28 Exhibit Ex. 10.r, # 29 Exhibit Ex. 10.s, # 30 Exhibit Ex. 11, # 31 Exhibit Ex. 12, # 32 Exhibit Ex. 13, # 33 Exhibit Ex. 14, # 34 Exhibit Ex. 15, # 35 Exhibit Ex. 16, # 36 Exhibit Ex. 17, # 37 Exhibit Ex. 18, # 38 Exhibit Ex. 19, # 39 Exhibit Ex. 20, # 40 Exhibit Ex. 21, # 41 Exhibit Ex. 22, # 42 Exhibit Ex. 23, # 43 Exhibit Ex. 24, # 44 Exhibit Ex. 25, # 45 Exhibit Ex. 26, # 46 Exhibit Ex. 27, # 47 Exhibit Ex. 28, # 48 Exhibit Ex. 29, # 49 Exhibit Ex. 30, # 50 Exhibit Ex. 31, # 51 Exhibit Ex. 32, # 52 Exhibit Ex. 33, # 53 Exhibit Ex. 34, # 54 Exhibit Ex. 35)(Oldham, Andrew)

EXHIBIT 20

App. 0822

UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS,
et al.,

)
)
)

Petitioners,

)

)

) No. 03-1361

V

)

UN ITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL

)

PROTECTION AGENCY,

Consolidated with Nos. 031 362-1 368

)
)

Respondent.

)

)

DECLARATION OF MICHAEL C. MacCRACKEN
I, MICHAEL C. MaoCRACKEN, declare as follows:

L

I received my Bachelor's of Science in Mechanical Engineering from Princeton

University in 1964,I then received my Master of Science and Ph.D. degrees in Applied Science
from the University of California Davis in 1966 and 1968, respectively. I was elected to the Phi
Kappa Phi honorary society at both undergraduate and gtaduate levels. From 1968 to 2002,I
was employed as a physicist at the University of California's Lawrence Livermore National

.

Laboratory (LLNL), where I led a number of scientific projects using numerical models to
simulate the effects of transport and industrial emissions on air quality and the response of the

climate to a range of natural and human-induced perturbations, including the likely impacts of an
increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. As a result of these

projects, I am the co-author/co-editor of eight books, 22 journal articles, and hundreds of other
reports and other notes.

2.

From 1993 to 2002,I was on assignment from my permanent position with LLNL

to serve as the senior scientist on global change at the Office of the U. S. Global Change

I

App. 0823
Cfltll,4

Research Program. In this capacity,

I served

as the

first Executive Director of the Office of the

U.S. Global Change Research Program ("USGCRP") from 1993-1997. I was responsible for
assisting in the coordination of the global change research programs of ten federal agencies,

including the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, the National Science
Foundation, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and others. In
addition, in my role as senior scientist, I was responsible for keeping up with scientific advances

in the field for the USGCRP andãssisting the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)
of the Executive Office of the President in summarizingthe scientific advances for government
leaders.

3.

Following my tenure as Executive Director of the Office of the USGCRP, I was

appointed Executive Director of the National Assessment Coordination Office, and served from
1997 through 2001 in this

role. I led a small staff that had responsibility for coordinating

the

U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
(U.S. National Assessment), which was carried out under the auspices of the USGCRP. This

responsibility included helping to design and support the overall assessment activity, focusing

particularly on ensuring the high quality of the scientific aspects. The U. S. National Assessment
was carried out at the direction of the Director of OSTP. The National Assessment brought
together the efforts of 20 university-based regional teams, 5 joint university-government

scientific teams focused on particular sectors of the economy and natural resources, and a federal
advisory committee composed of 12 leading scientists and experts. In addition to participating in
and reviewing many of the regional and sectoral activities and reports,

I served as an additional

lead author and generally contributed to the preparation of the national level reports entitled

Climate Change Impacts on the United Støtes: The Potential Consequences of Climate

2

nnnfì,':l( t)

tu tJ ..' l.'u;

App. 0824

Variability and Change, that were published in 2000 and200L r I was an additional lead author
of the National Assessment's Overview Report, and for the National Assessment?s Foundation
Report I was one of the lead authors of "Chapter 1: Scenarios for Climate Variability and
Change" and "Chapter 12: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for Native
Peoples and Homelands." In my role as Executive Director of the National Assessment

Coordination OfÍice, I also prepared Chapter 6 of the U.S. Government's Climate Action Report
2002.2 This report was the U.S. Government's quadrennial national communication under the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Chapter 6, on impacts and
adaptation, incorporated the findings of the National Assessment.In2002-03, I also assisted the
Department of Transportation in the conduct of a workshop on the potential impacts of climate
change on transportation.

4.

I have served in various capacities in the preparation of the First, Second and

Third Assessments of the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the IPCC's
First Assessment Report, which was completed in 1990, I was a contributor to Chapter 5 on

"Equilibrium Climate Change-and its Implications for the Future" and Chapter 8 on "Detection
of the Greenhouse Effect in the Observations." For the Second Assessment, which was
completed in 1995, I was a contributor to Chapter 8 of V/orking Group I, "Detection of Climate
Change and Attribution of Causes," and a lead author of Chapter 25 of Working Group

II,

"Mitigation: Cross-Sectoral and Other Issues," For the Third Assessment that was completed in
2001,I was a contributing author to Chapter 12 of V/orking Group I, "Detection of Climate
Change and Attribution of Causss." I was a reviewer of various chapters for each of these

I

U.S. Globul Change Research Prograrr¡ Climate Change Impacts on the tJnited States; The potential
ConseQuences of Climate Variability and Change: Overview Report (2000) and Foundation Report (2001).
Available from Cambridge University Press.
2

U.S. Dept. of State, U.S. Climqte Action Report 2002 (U.5. Government Printing Office 2002).

J

nnfrñ V
App.iJ0825 f?
U L í-,-;
-:

assessment reports and as part of my responsibility for the Office of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program,

I served

as scientific coordinator

for the official reviews of the U.S.

Government for both the Working Group I and II contributions for the Second and Third IPCC
Assessment Reports.

I also served as scientific advisor to the U.S. delegation

at the plenary

meetings of Working Group I for the Second and Third Assessments,3 conhibuting to the
preparation of the Summary for Policymakers of each assessment. For the IPCC's Fourth
Assessment Report to be completed

in 2007,I was recently appointed by the leadership of

Working Group II to serve as Review Editor for Chapter 14, which will focus on past, ongoing,
and future impacts of climate change on North America.

Summarv of Opinions

5.

The following findings and supporting information are offered as my expert

scientific opinion, based on my education, qualifications, experience, and knowledge of the
relevant scientific literature. These findings, in my expert opinion, also reflect the strong
consensus of opinion among qualified scientifiq experts involved in climate change research

in

the U.S. and around the world:

a.

The atmospheric concentrations of three important greenliouse gases, namely carbon

dioxide (COz), methane (CH¿), nitrous oxide (N2O), have been increasing since about
1750 as a result of human activities, principally the combustion of fossil fuel. The higher
concentrations of these greenhouse gases enhance the Earth's natural gteenhouse effect
and exert a warming influence on the Earth's climate. The human-induced increases in
the concentrations of COz, CH¿, and NzO are widely considered to be the major factor
responsible for the global warming of about 0.6"C (about 1"F) that occurred during the

'

to joining the Office
as a scientific adviser to the US delegation for consideration of the IPCC Working

H"ld in Madrid, Spain in November 1995 and in Shanghai, China in January 2001. Prior

the USGCRP,

I also served

of

Group I special report in January l992held in Guangzhou, China.

rt
4

ll f,rì,', T
l'¿ J

\¿\¡li

App. 0826

20th century.

b.

The most probable scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions indicate that, in the
absence of

policy change, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue

to rise steadily throughout this century, very likely exceeding concentrations seen over at
least the last 10

million years. As a result, global average surface air temperature, which

has already increased by about 0.6'C (about 1'F) over the last century,

will

also continue

rising at rates unprecedented in human history. In its Third Assessment Report,
averaging across the results of climate models, the IPCC concluded that global surface air
temperature is likely to increase by about 0.2 to 0.5oC (about 0.3 to 0.9"F) per decade. By
the end of the century, global average surface air temperature is projected to increase by
about 2 to 4.5"C over 1990 levels.

c.

Important environmental impacts of global warming that have occurred to date include:

(i) the warming of the oceans and the increased melting of many mountain glaciers
around the world that were the major contributions to the rise in global sea level

by 10-20

cm (4 to 8 inches) observed over the past century; (ii) the lengthening of the growing
season in

mid- and high-latitudes that has contributed to poleward and altitudinal shifts of

plant and animal ranges and the deciines of some plant and animal populations; and (iii)
the thawing of permafrost, and the later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and
lakes:a

d.

The environmental impacts ofprojected global warming will include: (i) an increase in
sea

level at an average rate of about 0.5 to 3.5 inches per decade, reaching 4-35 inches by

the end of the century (with the most likely value being, in my expert opinion, near or

o

So*" text is drawn from the IPCC's Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001; Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability; Cambridge University Press, page 3
5

ôñ1.ñ..f1
L; i.l i. r- ;;Ö

App. 0827

above the middle of this range);
ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs,

(ii)

severe and irreversible changes to important natural

Arctic coastal environments) and geographic features (e.g.,

forest boundaries, glaciers and ice sheets); and (iii) significant reduction of water storage

in winter snowpack in mountainous regions with direct and important economic
consequences;

e.

Achievable reductions in emissions of COz and other greenhouse gases from U.S. motor
vehicles would significantly reduce the build-up in atmospheric concentrations of these
gases and delay and moderate many of the adverse impacts

of global warming.

The scientific basis for each of these findings is explained in more detail below.

Current State of Scientific Authoritv on Climate Chanee

6.

Collective scientific understanding of climate change is best represented in major

assessment reports that assemble, evaluate and critically summarizethe results of thousands

of

scientific papers and studies that have been written about the many aspects of the climate change
issue. These carefully peer reviewed assessment reports present the most authoritative consensus

available of the scientific understanding of the effects of human activities on climate, as well as

of the potential impacts of climate change on the world and the U.S.

7.

In the late 1980s, the international community formed the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which produced a series of major assessments of climate
change

in 1990,

1995 and 2001.5 The national academies of science of approximately twenty

t

The IPCC's First Assessment Report series in 1990 consisted of the following reports: Scientific Assessrnent of
Climate Change - Report of Working Group / (Cambridge University Press, UK); Impacts Assessment of Clímøle
Change - Repòrt of Working Group 11(Australian Government Pubtishing Service Marketing Section); and The
IPCC Response Stralegies - Report of llorking Group III (Island Press, USA). The IPCC's Second Assessment
Report Series in 1995 consisted of the following: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change; Climate
Change 1995; lmpacts, Aclaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scíentifi.c-Technical Analyses;and Climate
Change I 99 5 ; Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (all available from Cambridge University
Press). The IPCC's Third Assessment Report series in 2001 consisted of the following: Climate Change 2001:
Synthesis Report; Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basls (Houghton et al. eds., Cambridge Univ. Press 2001)

6

App. 0828
û012

r3

nations, including the U.S.,6 recognize the IPCC's 2001 findings as the most authoritative
available concerning human-induced changes in climate and associated consequences. As a

result of my involvement in the development of these assessments, as summaized in paragraph
4, I have an extensive understanding of the findings of the IPCC reports relating to climâte
change science and consequent impacts, especially as they relate to the United States.

8.

The National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability

and Change, undertaken by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) pursuant to

Section 106 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990 [Public Law 101-606], is the major
assessment most directly focused on the potential impacts of climate change for the United

States.T As

a

result of my role as an author and as Executive Director of the ofTice responsible

for coordinating preparation of the National Assessment (see paragraph 3), I have a detailed
knowledge of the findings of the National Assessment.

9.

The U.S. Government also included the findings of the National Assessment in its

Climate Action Report 2002, the U.S. Government's quadrennial national communication under
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.s I prepared Chapter 6 of this
report, on impacts and adaptation, in my capacity as Executive Director of the National
Assessment Coordination Offrce of the USGCRP. It is in

full agreement with the presentation of

the science and impacts contained in the IPCC and National Assessment reports.

(available at http://www.grida.no/climatelipcc_tarlwgl/index.htm) ("Working Group I report"); Climate Change
2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerablli6l (McCarthy et al. eds., Cambridge Univ. Press 2001) (available at
htþ://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc-tar/wg2i) ("Working Group II report");and Climqte Change 2001; Mitigation
(Pachauri et al. eds., Cambridge Univ. Press 2001) (available at
htþ://www,grida.no/climatelipcc_tarlwg3/index.htm) ("Working Group III report"). In addition, the IPCC has
published many other special reports and documents. S
6
Natl. Research Council, Climate Change Science; An
Acadei¡ries press
2001).
7

U.S. Global Change Research Program, Climate Change Impacts on the (Jnited States: The Potential
Consequences of Climutè Variability and Change: Overview Report (2000) and Foundation Report (2001). Both
reports are available from Cambridge University Press.
t
U.S. Dept. of State, II.S. Climate Àction Report 2002 (U.5. Government Printing Office 2002).

7

CÐi,ii0
App. 0829

10.

and
The IpCC and NAST assessments carefully indicate the level of confidence

the
uncertainty that can be associated with the various dimensions of the issue. For example,

of
IpCC's Third Assessment Report adopted a specifîc set of terms to address the degree
associated with
certainty associated with various findings, with a numerical range of likelihood
each term:

"In this Summary for Policymakers and in the Technical Summary, the following

words have been used where appropriate to indicate judgmental estimates of confidence:

virtually certain(greater thanggo/ochance that

a

result is true); very likely (90-99% chance);

unlikely
tikely (66-90%); medium liketihood (33-66% chance); unlikely (IO-33% chance); very

l% chance)."e For the U.S. National
e-L0%chance); exceptionatly unlikely (less than
or probable,
Assessment, NAST developed a similar lexicon: very likely or very probable, likely

in
possible, unlikely or some chance, and very unlikely or little chance. My use of these terms
the followingpafagaphs is consistent with this IPCC and NAST usage.

The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Global W?rming

11,

is
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb about 90% of the solar eneigy that

of the
radiated upward from the Earth's surface, and thon these greenhouse gases re-radiate much
roughly
energy back down to the surface. In this way, the greenhouse gases act in a mail,ler
greenhouse gases'
equivalent to adding a blanket over the Earth. The higher the concentrations of

in surface
especially CO2, CHa, and NzO, the greater will be the trapping of heat and the increase
temperature.

9

tpCC Working Group I report, 2004,page 2, footnote 7 [iølics in original].

8

ûiiflLi

App. 0830

induced a cooling influence over the past 50 years-so the two most important natural influences

would have tended to cool the Earth just when it was in fact warming rapidly. The warming has
also been larger than could be explained by past natural oscillations in the climate since the end

of the last glaciation about 10,000 years ago.

15.

Reliable projections of future changes in the climate are most effectively carried

out using: (a) climate models that ensure objective and quantitative consideration is given to all
relevant processes and factors governing the behavior of the climate system, and (b) emissions
scenarios that are based upon the best available projections of how population, economic

development, and energy technologies are expected to evolve.

16.

Absent changes in policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric

concentrations of these gases are likely to increase at least as much and at least as fast as in
recent decades. I base this opinion on internationally accepted quantitative scenarios generated

by the IPCC.]3 These scenarios cover a wide range of possible outcomes from now until the end

of the 21't century in terms of global population growth, economic development, and energy
technologies and rates of use.

17.

If arurual global emissions of greenhouse

gases continue to increase in the next

several decades in accordance with these scenarios, there

will be significant

increases in the

atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Under the most plausible energy scenarios, the COz
concentration

will continue to increase over the coming decades, reaching between two to three

times its preindustrial level by the end of this century (for reference, the current concentration is

approximately 1.35 times the preindustrial concentration).

r3

IPCC, Emissions Scenarios,200Ó (Cambridge Univ. Press 2000) (avail. at http://www.ipcc.chlpub/sres-e.pdf).

10

ñ
App. 0831
r-: tì ir':
q,; *,,1 L,

,¡

tn.L

.

"Ð

Future Global'Warming

18.

These increases in concentrations

will likely

accelerate the rate of

warming' In its

Third Assessment Report, averaging across the results of climate models, the IPCC concluded
that global surface air temperature is likely to increase by about 0.2 to 0.5"C (about 0.3 to 0.9"F)
per decade. By the end of the century, global average surface air temperature is projected to
increase by about 2 to 4,5"C over 1990 levels. These are projections for changes in the global
average surface temperature. Temperature changes over land areas are expected to be greater

than over the oceân and temperature changes in mid to high latitudes are expected to exceed
changes in low latitudes. Because of this, the IPCC's projection of regional temperature changes

indicates larger changes are likely over North America. Warming in the Arctic is projected to be
even greater.la

lg.

Overall, this projected temperature increase would be likely to make avorage

conditions by the end of this century warmer than they have been for at least 420,000 years (the
period for which ice core data is available).

The Conseqlrences of Future Global Warming

20.

This projected temperature increase would have widespread adverse

consequences.t'For the U,S., the National Assessment summarizes key findings for different
regions of the country and for different national sectors.ló The following enumeration

)

of

'o IPCC Working Group I report, 2004,atchapter 10.
rs
See IPCC's Third Assessment Report Climøte Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (McCarthy
et al. eds., Cambridge Univ. Press 2001) (available at http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc tarlwg2l) ("Working Group
II report"). In additiãn, a database of articles on the likely impacts of climate change for the U.S. and other countries
is availab le at <http //www. climate. org/Cl/index. shtrnl>.
16
National Assessmeut Synthesis Team, U.S. Global Change Research Prograrn, Climøte Change Impacts on the
United States, Overview (Cambridge Univ, Press 2000) and Foundation (Cambridge Univ. Press 2001) (these
reports and supporting regional and sectoral reports are available.at
<http //www. us gcrp. gov/us gcrp/nacc/default. htm>)'
:

:

11

üûi:114

App. 0832

conditions focuses mainly on consequences related to human health and the services provided by
ecosystems and landscapes within the U.S.

21.

Increøsed íncidence of high temperatures and ertremely hígh heøt index: The

climate scenarios considered in the U.S. National Assessment were based primarily on model
simulations done by two IPCC-accepted rnodels, each running a mid-range scenario for future
emissions. These models projected an annual average warming of about 3 to 5'C (about 5 to 9'F)
across the U.S. during this century, which would be several times the increas.

ärros

the U.S.

during the 20th century.lT The change in summertime temperatures, combined with the associated
increase in absolute humidity, is projected to cause the 24-hour avem,ge heat index (a combined
measure of temperature and humidity) for July (as a representative surnmer month) to increase

by at least 6"C (about

1OoF) over most

of the country by 2100. Changes are projected to be about

double this amount in some regions, particularly across the southeastern and south-central U.S.
where the summertime heat index is already high. kr addition to such changes in the monthly
average temperature, the models also project that the length of the very warm season
increase and the occwrence of very high heat index conditions

will

will be expected to be more

frequent in more northerly parts of the country where people are not well adapted to such
conditions.

22.

Air quality is líkety to befurthe) impøíred.. Without additional control measures,

ongoing and projected changes in climate due to global warming are very likely to increase
emissions of various pollutants.lt High.r temperatures caused by global warming will increase
l7

MacCracken et al,, Climate change scenarios for the U.S. National Assessment , 84 Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society,lTl I (2003) (<avail. at htþ://ams.allenpress.com/pdfserv/i1520-0477-084-12-ljll.pdÞ).
'" For example, warner temperature will increase demand for energy (in buildings, cars, etc.)
while decreasing the
effìciency ofcombustion processes (in generating plants and in internal combustion engines), leading to the
emission of more pollutants; warrner temperatures will increase the release of smog-forming hydrocãrbons from oil
storage tanks and other storage containers and from forests and vegetation; the increased COz concentration is
expected to enhance growth of biomass, which could in some regions provide alarger source of hydrocarbon

T2

ûûr']2i5

App. 0833

the rates of the photochemical reactions that convert smog-forming emissions (volatile organic

compounds and oxides of nitrogen) into ozone smog.le hr addition, unless there is a substantial
and compensating tightening of emissions standards on all types of sources, longer warrn seasons
are very likely to increase the frequency of high ozone concentration episodes and violations

of

air quality standards.

23,

Projected wørrníng wíll also cause signíft.cant seø level ru'se; Global warming

contributed significantly to the 10 to 20 cm (about 4 to 8 inches) rise in sea level during the 20th
century. The meltback of mountain glaciers and warming of the oceans will contribute even
rnore significantly to futwe sea level rise. The IPCC assessment projects that these factors, and
other factors affecting the amount of water stored in reservoirs and underground, will cause sea

level to rise by about 9 to 88 cm (about 4 to 35 inches) by 2100, with a central range estimate
20-70 cm (8-28 inches) that I believe more likely encompasses what

of

will occur. To determine

the projected sea level rise at a particular location, the local rate of subsidence or uplift must aiso
be accounted for.
24

ofe

and íntense extreme weather events: The

available from increased average temperature

energy

will drive an increase in evaporation, ensuring that

more moisture will precipitate out as rain and snow. The increased rate of condensation releases

additional energy to the atmosphere and intensifies convective (e.g., thunderstorm-like) motions
in the atmosphere. Observations from many countries, including the U.S., indicate that such
changes are already evident as a result of the warming during the 20th century, and these

emissions; warmer temperatures will tend to increase the summertime drying of biomass, making the increased
biomass into a larger fuel base for fires and the pollutants that they emit.
re
As aù example, results from the New York Climate and Health project indicate that warmer temperatures
signif,rcantly increase the likelihood of ozone exceedances in that region. National Assessment Synthesis Tearr¡ U:S.
Global Change Research Prograrr¡ Climate Change Impacts on the United States, Overtiew (Cambridge Univ. Press
2000), page 104.

13

r\ ¡. rt..' /.|

ij (-' /- *
App. 0834
^
(-¡

(J

App. 0835

observed trends are vety likely to continue, contributing to more frequent flooding and

inundation in vulnerable regions. Of particular concern is the potential for an increase in the

wind speed and peak rate of precipitation of major tropical cyclones (i.e., hurricanes and
typhoons),

25.

An ìncreøse ín localflooding ønd coøstøl ìnundøtion: The increase in the

frequency and intensity of intense convective rainfall events is likely to increase incidents

of

localized flooding. The increased-wind speed and peak rate of precipitation from hurricanes,
along with higher storm surges due to the increase in sea level and in hurricane winds, are likely
rj

to cause greater damage and put those in the paths of hurricanes (or along streams and rivers
whose levels are raised by hurricanes) at greater risk of physical injury, property damage, and
subsequent anguish. Soil compactiòn, sea level rise and recurrent sevgre storms are destroying

)ì

approximately 20-30 square miles of Louisiana wetlands each year. These wetlands serve

as

the

j
rl

"shock absorber" fot storm surges that could inundate New Orleans, significantly enhancing the

)

I

risk to a major urban population. More frequent flooding and inundation have the potential for

rl
I

developing in other low-lying regions around the country, including along low-lying coastal

)

)

areas on the

Guif of Maine, Cape Cod, Long Island and the New York metropolitan area and

New Jersey, and further south along the Eastern Seaboard. The increased occurrence of very dry
conditions not only increases the risk of forest fires that can wipe out homes and communities,
but also sets the stage for the subsequent compounding effects of mudslides.
)
j

)

26.

Clírnate chønge will ímpact water resources: More precipitation falling in more

)

)

intense weather events

will

increase both flood- and drought-related damage. As soils become

i
I

saturated, more excess rain

will run off into

streams and rivers rather than be retained as soil

)

)

moisture. At the same time, the increased temperatures

will

cause more rapid evaporation

of

11tc2:7
T4

App. 0836

31.
roughly

22%o

Based on average emissions over the 1990s, the U.S. was responsible for emitting

of the world's fossil fuel emissions during that decade and the U.S. hansportation

sector (mainly automobiles) was responsible for about 7% of global fossil fuel emissions. Within
the U.S., the transportation sector is responsible for approximately 32%o

of national carbon

emissions. The U.S, transportation sector is becoming an increasing share of U.S. emissions due
to two trends: overall energy efficiency is improving in the industrial sector while the number

of

vehicles is growing, and the average emission of COz per vehicle is increasing.23

32.

Given the large emissions of COz and other greenhouse gases from motor vehicles

in the United States and the lead time needed to economically introduce changes into the motor
vehicle fleet, emission reductions must be initiated in the near future in order to significantly
reduce and delay the impacts of global warming. If the U.S. takes steps to reduce motor vehicle
emissions, other countries are very likely to take similar actions regarding their own motor
vehicles using technology developed in response to the U.S. program, thereby multiplying the

total emission reduction benefit of the U.S. action. This would discernibly and significantly
reduce and delay projected adverse consequences of global warming, and greatly improve the

likelihood that there would be time for additional development and use of even better
technologies. With such efforts, accompanied by progress in limiting other emissions, it would
be much more likely that the extent of climate change could ultimately be limited to levels that

would avoid the most serious impacts of global warming.

23

Chapter

3.

(Greenhouse Gas Inventory) in U,S. Climate Action Report-2002, pages 26

to 4g,Government

Printing Office, 2002.Table 3-4 on page 36 summarizes the trends in CO2 emissions by year and vehicle type; total
vehicle emissions increased by 16% from 1990 to 1999. Footnote 14 on page 35 admiti that the average miies per
gallon achieved by the U.S. highway vehicle fleet decreased in 1998 and 1999 (the latest years for which
information is available).

I7

nn'f-r\"ir'|
tj (J {-: r¿ '* r-r

App. 0837

I declare under

Executed en

fü

the penalty of perjury that the foregoing is true and correct.

n¿ t4 æT in Washington, D.C.

Michael C. MacCracken

U,*

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t-l t.j \,; ¿

18

App. 0838

il L