State of Texas et al v. United States of America et al

Filing 64

REPLY in Support of 5 Opposed MOTION for Preliminary Injunction, filed by Phil Bryant, Paul R. LePage, Patrick L. McCrory, C.L. "Butch" Otter, Bill Schuette, State of Louisiana, State of Alabama, State of Arizona, State of Arkansas, State of Florida, State of Georgia, State of Idaho, State of Indiana, State of Kansas, State of Montana, State of Nebraska, State of North Dakota, State of Ohio, State of Oklahoma, State of South Carolina, State of South Dakota, State of Texas, State of Utah, State of West Virginia, State of Wisconsin. (Attachments: # 1 Exhibit Ex 1, # 2 Exhibit Ex. 2, # 3 Exhibit Ex. 3, # 4 Exhibit Ex. 4, # 5 Exhibit Ex. 5, # 6 Exhibit Ex. 6, # 7 Exhibit Ex. 7, # 8 Exhibit Ex. 8, # 9 Exhibit Ex. 9.a, # 10 Exhibit Ex. 9.b, # 11 Exhibit Ex. 10.a, # 12 Exhibit Ex. 10.b, # 13 Exhibit Ex. 10.c, # 14 Exhibit Ex. 10.d, # 15 Exhibit Ex. 10.e, # 16 Exhibit Ex. 10.f, # 17 Exhibit Ex. 10.g, # 18 Exhibit Ex. 10.h, # 19 Exhibit Ex. 10.i, # 20 Exhibit Ex. 10.j, # 21 Exhibit Ex. 10.k, # 22 Exhibit Ex. 10.l, # 23 Exhibit Ex. 10.m, # 24 Exhibit Ex. 10.n, # 25 Exhibit Ex. 10.0, # 26 Exhibit Ex. 10.p, # 27 Exhibit Ex. 10.q, # 28 Exhibit Ex. 10.r, # 29 Exhibit Ex. 10.s, # 30 Exhibit Ex. 11, # 31 Exhibit Ex. 12, # 32 Exhibit Ex. 13, # 33 Exhibit Ex. 14, # 34 Exhibit Ex. 15, # 35 Exhibit Ex. 16, # 36 Exhibit Ex. 17, # 37 Exhibit Ex. 18, # 38 Exhibit Ex. 19, # 39 Exhibit Ex. 20, # 40 Exhibit Ex. 21, # 41 Exhibit Ex. 22, # 42 Exhibit Ex. 23, # 43 Exhibit Ex. 24, # 44 Exhibit Ex. 25, # 45 Exhibit Ex. 26, # 46 Exhibit Ex. 27, # 47 Exhibit Ex. 28, # 48 Exhibit Ex. 29, # 49 Exhibit Ex. 30, # 50 Exhibit Ex. 31, # 51 Exhibit Ex. 32, # 52 Exhibit Ex. 33, # 53 Exhibit Ex. 34, # 54 Exhibit Ex. 35)(Oldham, Andrew)

EXHIBIT 33

App. 1031

IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS
BROWNSVILLE DIVISION
STATE OF TEXAS, et al.,
Plaintiffs,
v.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, et al.,
Defendants

)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)

Civil Action No. 1:14-cv-00254

DECLARATION OF FINIS WELCH, Ph.D.
My name is Finis Welch, and I am over the age of 18 and fully competent in
all respects to make this declaration. I have personal knowledge and expertise of
the matters herein stated.
Qualifications
1.

I am Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Economics at Texas A&M

University and Professor Emeritus of Economics at University of California, Los
Angeles. I am president of Welch Consulting, a firm that provides expert services in
economics and statistics to the legal community, as well as general consulting in
economics and statistics. I also serve as chair of StataCorp LP.
2.

I received training in statistics and economics at the University of

Chicago, where I earned a Ph.D. in Economics in 1966. I have taught at several
universities including Texas A&M University, the University of California, Los
Angeles, the City University of New York, Yale University, Southern Methodist

1

App. 1032

University, and the University of Chicago. I have served on the research staff of the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and of the Rand Corporation. At
NBER I directed the Program on the Distribution of Income, and at Rand I founded
and directed the Labor and Population Studies Program. I have also served on the
board of a number of peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Labor
Economics and The American Economic Review. I have also served on numerous
panels and committees, including chairing the United States Commission on Civil
Rights' Advisory Committee on the Status of Women and Minorities and serving as
a labor economist on the National Research Council's Committee on Demographic
and Economic Impacts of Immigration.
3.

Among elected honorary positions, I am a Fellow of the Econometric

Society, a member of the American Academy for the Advancement of Science, a
member of the National Academy of Education, a Fellow of the Society of Labor
Economists and a member of the National Academy of Social Insurance.

My

research is published in a number of leading, peer-reviewed professional economics
journals as well as conference volumes. I am past Vice President of the American
Economics Association and past President of the Society of Labor Economists.
4.

I have been qualified as an expert in statistics and in economics in

both Federal and State courts and have testified on numerous occasions in Federal
and State courts.
5.

Attached to this declaration are true and correct copies of the following

documents:

2

App. 1033



Appendix 1 includes my curriculum vitae and lists my publications in
the last ten years.



Appendix 2 sets forth the cases in which I have testified in deposition
or at trial during the last four years.

Scope of Inquiry
6.

I have been retained in this case by the Office of the Attorney General

of Texas to examine the potential economic impact on the labor market of the
interaction between the Department of Homeland Security Memorandum dated
November 20, 2014 (“DHS Memorandum”)1 and the employer mandate provisions in
the Affordable Care Act (“ACA”).
7.

My billing rate for this matter is $500 per hour.

Background on Affordable Care Act and the DHS Memorandum
8.

It is my understanding that the DHS Memorandum will expand the

number of undocumented immigrants who will be eligible to receive an Employment
Authorization Document (“EAD”) by an estimated 4 million individuals nationwide,
but these individuals newly authorized to work will not be eligible for the premium
subsidies provided by the ACA.2

The DHS Memorandum regards the exercise of “prosecutorial discretion” for certain
undocumented immigrants. The subject of the DHS Memorandum, prepared by Jeh
Charles Johnson, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, is “Exercising
Prosecutorial Discretion with Respect to Individuals Who Came to the United States as
Children and with Respect to Certain Individuals Who are the Parents of U.S. Citizens or
Permanent Residents.”
2 Memorandum Opinion for the Secretary of Homeland Security, from Karl R. Thompson,
Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Office of Legal Counsel, The Department of
Homeland Security’s Authority to Prioritize Removal of Certain Aliens Unlawfully Present
1

3

App. 1034

9.

The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation

in March 2012 estimated the impact of the ACA on nonelderly workers and their
families who were projected to receive employment-based coverage in 2016 in the
absence of the ACA. The resulting estimates are that 64 million of these individuals
will be eligible for subsidies in the exchanges under the ACA.3
10.

Beginning with the 2015 plan year, the ACA mandates that employers

with 100 or more full-time employees offer health insurance that provides
“minimum value” and is “affordable” to their full-time employees. Starting with the
2016 plan year, this mandate expands to employers with 50 or more full-time
employees.4
11.

To my knowledge, “minimum value” requires that health insurance

pay at least 60% of the cost of covered services for employees and their children up
to age 26. The ACA does not require the employer to pay the entire cost of this
coverage, but the mandate to be “affordable” requires the cost to the employee for
this coverage be no more than 9.5% of the employee’s income.5
12.

An employer offering coverage that does not provide “minimum value”

or is not “affordable” will owe a penalty under the ACA if any of its employees
in the United States and to Defer Removal of Others at 30 (Nov. 19, 2014); 45 C.F.R. §
152.2(8).
3 Congressional Budget Office, CBO and JCT’s Estimates of the Effects of the Affordable
Care Act on the Number of People Obtaining Employment-Based Health Insurance at 12-14
(Mar.
2012),
available
at
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/03-15ACA_and_Insurance_2.pdf.
4
Cigna, Employer Mandate Fact Sheet at 1 (Dec. 2014), available at
http://www.cigna.com/assets/docs/about-cigna/informed-on-reform/employer-mandate-factsheet.pdf.
5 Cigna, Employer Mandate Fact Sheet, supra, at 1-2.

4

App. 1035

purchases coverage on the insurance exchange and receives a premium subsidy. It
is my understanding that this penalty is the lesser of a) $2,000 per year per
employee after the first 30 employees, or b) $3,000 per year per employee receiving
a premium subsidy.6
13.

Because this penalty is not a deductible expense for the employer from

federal (and possibly state) income taxes,7 the before-tax penalty amount, which
would be compared to the wage, is even larger.8
Interaction of DHS Memorandum and ACA on Labor Market
14.

The interaction of the DHS Memorandum and the ACA will impact

employment and wages in the labor market.9
15.

Consider an employer facing this penalty that is considering hiring one

of two prospective employees. These two employees are equally productive and are
the same in all relevant aspects to this employer, except that applicant A is a U.S.
citizen and applicant B has a new EAD issued pursuant to the DHS Memorandum.
16.

Assume applicants A and B are relatively low skilled, so that the cost

to the employee of the coverage offered by this employer exceeds 9.5% of the wage
Edward A. Morse, Lifting the Fog: Navigating Penalties in the Affordable Care Act, 46
CREIGHTON L. REV. 207, 221-22 (2013); Cigna, Employer Mandate Fact Sheet, supra, at 1.
For the $3,000 penalty to apply, the employer must have less than a minimum of 26.6% of
its employees receiving a premium subsidy. This cutoff % rises with the number of
employees—to 46.6% for an employer with 100 total employees and to a maximum of 66.6%
(the cutoff % equals 2/3 – 20/# employees).
7 Morse, supra, at 223.
8 For an employer facing a 35% federal corporate income tax rate and the $3,000 penalty,
the equivalent annual before-tax amount is at least $4,615.38.
9 As an example, for the employer in footnote 8, the penalty would increase the relative
annual cost of employing a worker 30 hours per week at the federal minimum wage who
receives a premium subsidy by more than 40%.
6

5

App. 1036

that would be offered to them. Also assume that this employer expects less than
25% of its employees to obtain a premium subsidy.
17.

In this scenario, the employer would expect applicant A to be more

expensive to employ than applicant B because of the interaction of the ACA
penalties described above and the DHS Memorandum. There is an extra cost of
$3,000 per year (plus the tax impact noted above) from hiring applicant A, if
applicant A will receive a premium subsidy. In contrast, hiring applicant B entails
no extra cost because applicant B is not eligible for a premium subsidy.
18.

An employer subject to the ACA penalties described above that is

operating to minimize its expected cost of operations will hire applicant B instead of
applicant A. Applicant A, therefore, will take longer to find employment and the
resulting employment is more likely to occur at a lower wage.
19.

Depending on the employee cost of insurance, the incentive to hire

applicant B can occur at a range of wage levels, as illustrated in the following two
examples.
Example 1
20.

In addition to the above facts, suppose that applicants A and B would

be paid the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. Assuming 30 hours per week
(the definition of full time in the ACA), a monthly employee cost of $89.54 or greater
($7.25 x 130 hours x 9.5%) would make the employer-provided coverage not
“affordable” and would make applicant A eligible for the premium subsidy and

6

App. 1037

potentially trigger the extra $3,000 per year cost (plus the tax impact) from hiring
applicant A.10 There is no extra cost from hiring applicant B.
21.

As a result, the employer will hire applicant B instead of applicant A if

the employer is operating to minimize its expected cost of operations.
Example 2
22.

As an alternative, suppose that applicants A and B would be paid

$30,000 per year (about twice the federal minimum wage for 40 hours per week).11
A monthly employee cost for employee and dependent coverage in excess of $237.50
(9.5% x $30,000/12) would not be “affordable” and would make applicant A eligible
for the premium subsidy and potentially trigger the extra $3,000 per year cost (plus
the tax impact) from hiring applicant A. Again, there is no extra cost from hiring
applicant B.
23.

Similar to the previous example, the employer in this example would

be expected to hire applicant B instead of applicant A in an effort to minimize costs.
Conclusion
24.

The interaction of the DHS Memorandum and the mandate provisions

of the ACA gives employers a financial incentive to hire an undocumented

At 40 hours per week, the monthly employee cost would have to be no more than $119.38
to be “affordable.”
11 Using 35 hours per week instead of the ACA limit of 30 to define full-time, the U.S.
Census Bureau reports that more than 26.4 million persons were employed full-time and
full-year in 2013 with annual earnings below $30,000. U.S. Census Bureau, Current
Population Survey, 2014 Annual Social and Economic Supplement at Table PINC-10,
available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032014/perinc/pinc10_000.htm.
10

7

App. 1038

App. 1039

Appendix 1

App. 1040

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

Dr. Welch founded Welch Consulting and continues as its president. He received his Ph.D. in
Economics from the University of Chicago and has taught economics for an academic career that
spanned 40 years. During that time he taught, in chronological order, at the University of Chicago,
Southern Methodist University, Yale University, the City University of New York -- where he
served as Executive Officer of the Ph.D. Program in Economics -- the University of California, Los

EDUCATION
Ph.D., Economics
University of Chicago
Chicago, Illinois
1966
B.S., Mathmatics and
Agricultural Economics
University of Houston
Houston, Texas
1961

Angeles (UCLA) and Texas A&M University.
Currently Dr. Welch is Professor Emertus of Economics, UCLA, and Emeritus Distinguished
Professor of Economics, Texas A&M. He has published over 100 articles in professional journals,
monographs and books. He has served on the editorial boards of several professional journals
including the American Economic Review and the Journal of Labor Economics.
Dr. Welch is a member of the National Academy of Social Insurance, a fellow of the American
Academy for the Advancement of Science, a fellow of the Econometric Society and a fellow of
the Society of Labor Economists. He is past vice president of the American Economic Association
and past vice president and president of the Society of Labor Economists. Dr. Welch received the
Jacob Mincer Career Achievement Award from the international Society of Labor Economics.
Dr. Welch began working in litigation in the early 1970s and has testified many times in Federal
and State Courts as well as before Congressional Committees and regulatory bodies.

AWARDS AND HONORARY POSITIONS
Society of Labor Economists Jacob Mincer Award for Lifetime Contributions to the

Field of Labor Economics, 2007.
Presenter, Richard T. Ely Lecture, Plenary Session of the Meetings of the American

Economic Association, 1999.
Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1990.
Fellow of the Econometric Society, 1980.
Vice-President, American Economic Association, 2002.
President, Society of Labor Economists, 2003-04.
Fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, 2003.
Member of the National Academy of Social Insurance, 1990.
Member of the National Academy of Education, 1983.

App. 1041

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PROFESSIONAL
EXPERIENCE
Professor of Economics
Texas A&M University,
College Station, Texas
1991-2003

Professor of Economics
University of California
Los Angeles, California
1973-1991
Director, Labor & Population
Studies Program, RAND Corporation
Santa Monica, California
1973-1978
Senior Economist, RAND
Santa Monica, California
1973-1978
Professor and Executive Officer
Ph.D. Program in Economics
City University of New York
1971-1973

Research Associate
National Bureau of Economic Research
New York, New York
1970-1976
Faculty Fellow
National Bureau of Economic Research
New York, New York
1969-1970
Assistant and Associate
Professor of Economics
Southern Methodist University
Dallas, Texas
1966-1970
Assistant Professor of Economics
University of Chicago
Chicago, Illinois
1964-66

COMMITTEES, ETC.
Honors and Awards Committee, American Economic Association, Member 1996-97;

Chair, 1997-99.
Committee on Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration,

National Research Council, 1995-96.
Panel on the Future of Income Security and Health Care Financing for the

Advisory Council on Social Security, 1991.
Technical Panel of Experts for the Advisory Council on Social Security, 1989-90.
Chairman, U.S. Commission on Civil Rights Advisory Committee

on the status of women and minorities, 1984-86.
Grants Review Panel for Economics, National Science Foundation, 1980-81.
Various Grant Review Panels, National Institute of Health, 1992-Present.
Board of Directors of the Social Science Research Council, 1979-82.
Chairman, American Enterprise Institute Advisory Committee on Minimum Wage Studies,

1978-81.
Program Chairman, North American Meetings of the Econometric Society, 1978.
Commission on Human Resources, National Research Council, National Academy of

Sciences, 1974-77.

CURRENT POSITIONS
Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Economics, TAMU.
Professor Emeritus of Economics, UCLA.
President, Welch Consulting.
Chairman, Unicon Research Corporation.
Chairman, StataCorp LP.

PUBLICATIONS
Handbook of the Economics of Education, edited by E. Hanushek and F. Welch. North Holland
(2006).
“Using Wages to Infer School Quality,” with Robert Speakman. In Handbook of the Economics of
Education, edited by E. Hanushek and F. Welch. North Holland (2006):813-864.
“Has School Desegregation Improved Academic and Economic Outcomes for Blacks?” with
Steven Rivkin. In Handbook of the Economics of Education, edited by E. Hanushek and F. Welch.
North Holland (2006):1019-1049.

App. 1042

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
“Employment Quotas for Minorities.” Journal of Political Economy 84, no. 4 (August 1976):S105S139. Reprinted in The Economics of Affirmative Action, Vol. 176, The International Library of Critical
Writing in Economics, edited by H. Holzer and D. Neumark. London. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
(2004):3-38.
“Affirmative Action and Labor Markets,” with James P. Smith. Journal of Labor Economics 2, no. 2
(April 1984):269-301. Reprinted in The Economics of Affirmative Action, Vol. 176, The International
Library of Critical Writing in Economics, edited by H. Holzer and D. Neumark. London. Edward Elgar
Publishing Ltd. (2004):188-220.
“Black Economic Progress After Myrdal,” with James P. Smith. Journal of Economic Literature 27,
no.2 (June 1989):519-564. Reprinted in Labor Economics, edited by O. Ashenfelter and K. Hallock.
Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (1994):139-184. Reprinted in The Economics of Schooling and School
Quality, Vol. 1: Labor Markets, Distribution, and Growth, edited by E. A. Hanushek. London: Edward
Elgar Publishing Ltd. (2003).
“Education in Production.” Journal of Political Economy 78, no. 1 (January 1970):35-59. Reprinted
in Economic Demography, edited by T. P. Schultz. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (1998):21-45.
Reprinted in The Economics of Schooling and School Quality, Vol. 1: Labor Markets, Distribution,
edited by E. A. Hanushek. London: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (2003).
“The Structure of Wages,” with Kevin Murphy. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, no.1 (February
1992):285-326. Reprinted in The Economics of Schooling and School Quality, Vol. 1: Labor Markets,
Distribution, edited by E. A. Hanushek. London: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. (2003).
“Catching Up: Wages of Black Men.” The American Economic Review 93, no. 2 (May 2003):320325.
“The Obsolescence of Skill,” with Manuelita Ureta. In The Economics of Skills Obsolescence:
Theoretical Innovations and Empirical Applications, edited by A. De Grip, J. Van Loo and K. Mayhew.
Elsevier Science Ltd. (2002):51-81.
“Inequality, Incentives, and Opportunity,” with Donald Deere. In Should Differences in Income
and Wealth Matter? edited by E. F. Paul, F. D. Miller, Jr. and J. Paul. Cambridge University Press
(2002):84-109. Social Philosophy & Policy 19, no. 1 (Winter 2002):84-109.
“Half Full or Half Empty? The Changing Economic Status of African Americans,” in Beyond the
Color Line: New Perspectives on Race and Ethnicity in America, edited by A. Thernstrom and S.
Thernstrom. Hoover Institution Press and Manhattan Institute (2002):181-200.
“Industrial Change and the Demand for Skill,” with Kevin Murphy. In The Causes and Consequences
of Increasing Inequality, edited by F. Welch. University of Chicago Press (2001):263-284.

App. 1043

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
The Causes and Consequences of Increasing Inequality, edited by F. Welch. University of Chicago
Press (2001).
“Wage Differentials in the 1990s: Is the Glass Half-full or Half-empty,” with Kevin Murphy. In The
Causes and Consequences of Increasing Inequality, edited by F. Welch. University of Chicago Press
(2001):341-364.
“Linear Synthesis of Skill Distributions.” Journal of Human Resources (Summer 1969):311-329.
Reprinted in The International Library of Critical Writing in Economics 124, Vol. II, Income Distribution,
edited by M. Sattinger. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (2001):3-19.
“In Honor of Kevin M. Murphy: Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal.” Journal of Economic
Perspectives 14, no. 3 (Summer 2000):193-204.
“Growth in Women’s Relative Wages and in Inequality Among Men: One Phenomenon or Two?”
The American Economic Review 90, no. 2 (May 2000):444-449.
“In Defense of Inequality.” The American Economic Review 89, no. 2 (May 1999):1-17.
“Perspectives on the Social Security Crisis and Proposed Solutions,” with Kevin Murphy.
The American Economic Review 88, no. 2 (May 1998):142-150.
“Measuring Educational Attainment: The Old and The New Census and BLS Taxonomies,” with
Manuelita Ureta. Economics of Education Review 17, no. 1 (1998):15-30.
“Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings: The Baby Boom Babies’ Financial Bust.” Journal of Political
Economy, 87, no. 5, pt. 2 (October 1979):S65-S97. Reprinted in The Economics of Ageing, edited by
J. Creedy. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (1995):228-60. Reprinted in Economic Demography, edited
by T. P. Schultz. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (1998):303-35.
“Education in Production.” Journal of Political Economy, 78, no. 1 (January 1970):35-59. Reprinted in
Economic Demography, edited by T. P. Schultz. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd (1998):21-45.
“The Structure of Wages Revisited,” with Kevin Murphy. In Publications of the GAAC, Symposia,
Vol. 5, edited by German-American Academic Council Foundation (1997).

“Wages and Participation.” Journal of Labor Economics 15, no. 1 (January 1997):S77-S103.
“Real Wage Growth and OASDI Trust Fund Solvency,” with Kevin Murphy. Unicon Research
Corporation, Santa Monica, CA (1996).

App. 1044

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
“Changes in the Structure of Wages,” with Brooks Pierce. In Improving America’s Schools:
The Role of Incentives, edited by E. Hanushek and D. Jorgenson. National Academy Press.
Washington, D.C. (1996):53-74.
“Examining the Evidence on Minimum Wages and Employment,” with Donald Deere and Kevin
Murphy. In The Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment, edited by M. Kosters. AEI Press
(1996):26-54.
“Trends in Labor-Force Behavior of Older Americans,” with Franco Peracchi. Social Security Bulletin
58, no.4 (Winter 1995):133-138.
“Labor Force Behavior of Older Men in the U.S.A. - An Analysis of Recent Trends,” with Franco
Peracchi. Statistica 53, no. 3, (1995):407-427.
“Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage, A Review.” Industrial & Labor
Relations Review 48, no. 4 (July 1995):842-849.
“How Representative Are Matched Cross-Sections: Evidence From the Current Population Survey,”
with Franco Peracchi. Journal of Econometrics 68, no.1, (July 1995):153-180.
“Employment and the 1990/91 Minimum Wage Hike,” with Donald Deere and Kevin Murphy.
The American Economic Review 85 no. 2, (May 1995):232-237.
“Sense and Nonsense on the Minimum Wage,” with Donald Deere and Kevin Murphy. Regulation
18m, no. 1 (1995):47-56.
“Trends in Labor Force Transition of Older Men and Women,” with Franco Peracchi.
Journal of Labor Economics 12, no. 2 (April 1994):210-242.

“Dimensions of Inequality in Labor Income,” with Brooks Pierce. In The Changing Distribution
of Income in an Open U.S. Economy, edited by T. Cosimano and R. Sheehan. North-Holland
Publishing Company (1994):145-179.
“Inequality and Relative Wages,” with Kevin Murphy. The American Economic Review 83, no. 2
(May 1993):104-109.
“Occupational Change and the Demand for Skill, 1940-1990,” with Kevin Murphy. The American
Economic Review (May 1993):122-126.
“Problems in Assessing Employment Discrimination,” with Robert S. Follett and Michael P. Ward.
The American Economic Review (May 1993):73-78.

App. 1045

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
“Industrial Change and the Rising Importance of Skill,” with Kevin Murphy. In Uneven Tides: Rising
Inequality in the 1980s, edited by S. Danziger and P. Gottschalk. The Russell Sage Foundation
Press (1993):101-132.
“Real Wages 1963 - 1990,” with Kevin Murphy. Unicon Research Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
(November 1992).
“The Role of International Trade in Wage Differentials,” with Kevin Murphy. In Workers and Their
Wages: Changing Patterns in the United States, edited by M. Kosters. Washington, D.C.: The AEI
Press (1991):39-69.
“The Comparable Worth Pay Regression.” Unicon Research Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
(August 1990).
“Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles,” with Kevin Murphy. Journal of Labor Economics 8, no. 2 (April
1990):202-229.
“The Employment of Black Men,” Journal of Labor Economics 8, no. 1, part 2 (January 1990):
S26-S74.
“Recent Trends in Real Wages: Evidence from Household Data,” with Kevin Murphy.
Unicon Research Corporation (1989).
“Affirmative Action and Discrimination.” In The Question of Discrimination, edited by S. Shulman and
W. Darity, Jr. Middletown, CT: Wesleyan University Press (1989):153-189.
“Wage Premiums for College Graduates: Recent Growth and Possible Explanations,” with
Kevin Murphy. Educational Researcher 18, no. 4 (May 1989):17-26.
“The Panel Study of Income Dynamics After Fourteen Years: An Evaluation,” with S. Becketti,
W. Gould, and L. Lillard. Journal of Labor Economics 6, no. 4 (October 1988):472-492.
“Cohort Size and Earnings in the United States,” with Kevin Murphy and Mark Plant. In Economics
of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries, edited by R. Lee, W.B. Arthur, and G.
Rodgers. Oxford: Clarendon Press (1988):39-58.
“Racial Discrimination: A Human Capital Perspective,” with James P. Smith. In Three Worlds of
Labor Economics, edited by G. Mangum and P. Philips. Armonk, N. Y.: M.E. Sharpe, Inc. (1988).
“Implementing Comparable Worth: Conceptual Issues and Impacts,” with John Raisian and Michael
P. Ward. In Three Worlds of Labor Economics, edited by G. Mangum and P. Philips. Armonk, N. Y.:
M.E. Sharpe, Inc. (1988):39-57.

App. 1046

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
New Evidence on School Desegregation, with Audrey Light. Prepared for the U.S. Commission on
Civil Rights, Clearinghouse Publication 92. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Commission on Civil Rights,
(December 1987).
“A Reconsideration of the Impact of School Desegregation Programs on Public School Enrollment of
White Students, 1968-1976.” Sociology of Education 60 (October 1987):215-221.
“Race and Poverty: A Forty-Year Record,” with James P. Smith. The American Economic Review 77,
no. 2 (May 1987):152-158.

“The Postservice Earnings of Military Retirees: Evidence from the U.S. Air Force,” with George
J. Borjas. Research in Labor Economics 8, no. A (1986):57-83.
“The Postservice Earnings of Military Retirees,” with George J. Borjas. In Army Manpower
Economics, edited by C.L. Gilroy, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986:295-319.
“Efficient Labor Contracts with Employment Risk,” with Robert H. Topel. RAND Journal of
Economics 17, no. 4 (Winter 1986):490-507.
“What Do We Really Know About Wages: The Importance of Non-reporting and Census Imputation,”
with James P. Smith and Lee Lillard. Journal of Political Economy 94, no. 3, pt. 1 (June 1986):489506.
“Pay Equity and Comparable Worth,” with John Raisian and Michael P. Ward. Contemporary Policy
Issues 4, no. 2 (April 1986):5-20.
“Closing the Gap: Forty Years of Economic Progress for Blacks,” with James P. Smith. Prepared
for the U.S. Department of Labor, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, #R-3330-DOL (February
1986).
“The Labor Market Experiences of Young Men,” with George J. Borjas and Richard Sousa. Unicon
Research Corporation, Santa Monica, CA (May 1985).
“Affirmative Action in Employment: An Overview and Assessment of Effects.” In Selected Affirmative
Action Topics in Employment and Business Set-Asides. U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, 1 (1985).
“Comparable Worth: Issues, Evidence and Impact,” with John Raisian and Michael P. Ward. Welch
Associates, Santa Monica, CA (March 1985).
“Measuring the Impact of Education on Productivity,” with Mark Plant. In Education and Economic
Productivity, edited by E. Dean. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1984:163-193.

App. 1047

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
“Testing for Discrimination in Employment Practices,” with Robert Follett. In Law and Contemporary
Problems 46, no. 4 edited by D. W. Peterson. Durham: Duke University Press (Autumn 1983):
171-184.
“Earnings of Hispanic Men: The Role of English Language Proficiency,” with Walter McManus and
William Gould. Journal of Labor Economics 1, no. 2 (April 1983):101-130.
“Some Determinants of the Level and Racial Composition of Teenage Employment,” with Nabeel
A. Alsalam and Alene Quester. In The Economics of Legal Minimum Wages, edited by S.
Rottenberg. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute (1981):124-154.
“Affirmative Action and Its Enforcement.” The American Economic Review 71, no. 2 (May 1981):
127-133.
“No Time to Be Young: Economic Prospects for Large Cohorts in the United States,” with James P.
Smith. Population and Development Review 7, no. 1 (March 1981):71-83.
“Unemployment Insurance: Survey and Extensions,” with Robert R. Topel. Economica 47, no. 187
(August 1980):351-379.

“The Quality of Education and Cohort Variations in Black-White Earnings Differentials: Reply.”
The American Economic Review 70, no. 1 (March 1980):192-195.
“Race Differences in Earnings: A Survey and New Evidence,” with James P. Smith. In Current
Issues In Urban Economics, edited by P. Mieskowski and M. Straszheim. Johns Hopkins University
Press (1979).
“On Sex Preferences and Family Size,” with Yoram Ben-Porath. In Research in Population
Economics, 2, edited by J. Simon and J. deVanzo. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press (September
1979):387-400.
“The Rising Impact of Minimum Wages.” Regulation, (November/December 1978):28-37.
“Inequality: Race Difference in the Distribution of Earnings,” with James P. Smith. The International
Economic Review 20, no. 2 (June 1979):515-526.
“The Overeducated American?” with James P. Smith. In review of The Overeducated American, by
R. Freeman. New York: Academic Press (1976):49-83.
“Farm Income and Its Taxation: Evidence of Gross Inequalities,” with Robert Evenson.
In Full Employment On A Small Planet. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press (1978).

App. 1048

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
“The Labor Supply Response of Farmers.” In Welfare in Rural Areas: The North Carolina-Iowa
Income Maintenance Experiment, edited by J. Palmer and J. Pechman. Washington, D.C.:
Brookings Institute (1978):77-104.
“The Role of Investments in Human Capital in Reducing Constraints in Agricultural Production.”
In Distortions in Agricultural Incentives, edited by T.W. Schultz. University of Indiana Press (1978).
Minimum Wages: Issues and Evidence. Washington, D.C.: The American Enterprise Institute
(November/December 1978).
“Local Labor Markets and Cyclic Components in Demand for College Trained Manpower,” with
James P. Smith. Annales de l’Insee 30-31 (March 1978):599-629.
“Effects of Minimum Wages on the Level and Age Composition of Youth Employment,” with James
Cunningham. The Review of Economics and Statistics 60, no. 4 (February 1978):140-145.
“Black-White Male Earnings and Employment: 1960-1970,” with James P. Smith. In The Distribution
of Economic Well Being: Studies in Income and Wealth 41, edited by F.T. Juster. Cambridge, Mass:
The National Bureau of Economic Research (1977):233-299.
“What Have We Learned from Empirical Studies of Unemployment Insurance?” Industrial and Labor
Relations Review 30, no. 4 (July 1977):451-461.
“Black-White Male Wage Ratios, 1960-1970,” with James P. Smith. The American Economic Review
67, no. 3 (June 1977):323-338.

“The Census Occupational Taxonomy: How Much Information Does It Contain?” with Iva Maclennan.
RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, #R-1849-HEW (September 1976).

“Do Sex Preferences Really Matter?” with Yoram Ben-Porath. The Quarterly Journal of Economics
(May 1976):285-307.

“The Labor Market Implications of an Economy-Wide Affirmative Action Program,” with George E.
Johnson. Industrial and Labor Relations Review 29, no. 4 (July 1976):508-522.
“Human Capital Theory: Education, Discrimination, and Life Cycles.” The American Economic
Review 65, no. 2 (May 1975):63-73.
“Labor Supply and Labor Demand Over Business and Life Cycles.” Proceedings of the Twenty-sixth
Annual Winter Meeting of the Industrial Relations Research Association (1974).
“Education and Racial Discrimination.” In Discrimination in Labor Markets, edited by O. Ashenfelter
and A. Rees. Princeton University Press (1974):43-81.

App. 1049

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)
“Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States.” Economic Inquiry 12, no. 3(September 1974):
285-318.
“Black-White Differences in the Return to Schooling.” The American Economic Review 63, no. 5
(December 1973):893-907.
“Sex of Children: Prior Uncertainty and Subsequent Fertility Behavior.” RAND Corporation,
Santa Monica, CA, #R-1510-RF (August 1974).
“Relationships Between Income and Schooling.” Journal of Research in Education 2 (Spring
1974):179-201.
“Comment on Benefits of Women’s Education within Marriage,” by Lee Benham. Journal of Political
Economy 82, no. 2 (March/April 1974):S72-S75.
“The Effects of Minimum Wages on the Distribution of Changes in Aggregate Employment,”
with Marvin Kosters. The American Economic Review 62, no. 3 (June 1972):323-332.
“The Effects of Minimum Wages by Race, Sex and Age,” with Marvin Kosters. In Racial
Discrimination in Economic Life, edited by A. Pascal. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books (1972):
103-118.
“Chance, Child Traits and the Choice of Family Size,” with Yoram Ben-Porath. RAND Corporation,
Santa Monica, CA, #R-1117-NIH/RF (1972).
“A Note on the Estimation of Labor Supply Effects and Income Redistribution Policy,” with Sherwin
Rosen. Journal of Human Resources 7, no. 1 (Winter 1972):104-110.
“Formal Education and the Distributional Effects of Agricultural Research and Extension.”
In Resource Allocation in Agricultural Research, edited by W.L. Fishel. University of Minnesota
Press (1971):183-194.
“Labor Market Discrimination: An Interpretation of Income Differences in the Rural South.”
Journal of Political Economy 75, no. 3 (June 1967):225-240.
“The NBER Approach to Human Resource Problems.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
51st Annual Report 9-20 (September 1971).
“Discrimination in the Markets for Farm Capital?” with Robert Tinney. American Journal of
Agricultural Economics 53, no. 3 (August 1971):401-410.
“Labor Supply and Income Redistribution,” with Sherwin Rosen. The Review of Economics and
Statistics 53, no. 3 (August 1971):278-282.

App. 1050

Finis R. Welch, Ph.D.
WELCH CONSULTING

1716 Briarcrest Dr., Ste 700
Bryan, TX 77802
979.846.0303
[e-mail]

PUBLICATIONS (continued)

“Some Aspects of Structural Change and the Distributional Effects of Technical Change and
Farm Programs.” In Burdens and Benefits of Rural Development, edited by E.O. Heady. Iowa
State University Center for Agriculture and Economic Development, Iowa State University Press
(1970):161-193.
“Supply Control with Marketable Quotas: The Cost of Uncertainty.” Journal of Farm Economics 49,
no. 3 (August 1967):584-596.
“Measurement of the Quality of Schooling.” The American Economic Review 56, no. 2 (May
1966):379-392.
“Schooling Versus Education.” Proceedings, South-Western Conference on Agricultural Policy
and Economic Development (February 1965).

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App. 1051

Appendix 2

App. 1052

List of Finis Welch’s Depositions and Testimonies in the Past Four Years
Ewell E. Parker, Jr. v. Outdoor Channel Holdings, Inc., et al.
Deposition: 11/13/12
Case No. 2-11CV-159-J
In the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, Amarillo Division

Page 1

App. 1053